Top Economic Advisers Forecast World War Submitted by George Washington on 11/18/2012 11:40 -0500 Charles Nenner China Global Economy Goldman Sachs goldman sachs Jim Rogers Kyle Bass Kyle Bass Marc Faber Purchasing Power Trade War Trade Wars Kyle Bass writes : Trillions of dollars of debts will be restructured and millions of financially prudent savers will lose large percentages of their real purchasing power at exactly the wrong time in their lives. Again, the world will not end, but the social fabric of the profligate nations will be stretched and in some cases torn. Sadly, looking back through economic history, all too often war is the manifestation of simple economic entropy played to its logical conclusion . We believe that war is an inevitable consequence of the current global economic situation. Larry Edelson wrote an email to subscribers entitled “What the “Cycles of War” are saying for 2013″, which states: Since the 1980s, I’ve been studying the so-called “cycles of war” — the natural rhythms that predispose societies to descend into chaos, into hatred, into civil and even international war. I’m certainly not the first person to examine these very distinctive patterns in history. There have been many before me, notably, Raymond Wheeler, who published the most authoritative chronicle of war ever, covering a period of 2,600 years of data. However, there are very few people who are willing to even discuss the issue right now. And based on what I’m seeing, the implications could be absolutely huge in 2013. Former Goldman Sachs technical analyst Charles Nenner – who has made some big accurate calls, and counts major hedge funds, banks, brokerage houses, and high net worth individuals as clients – says there will be “a major war starting at the end of 2012 to 2013”, which will drive the Dow to 5,000. Why are these economic gurus forecasting war? For one thing, many influential people wrongly believe that war is good for the economy. In addition, Jim Rogers says : If it turns into a trade war, it is the most momentous thing of 2011,” said Rogers. “ Trade wars always lead to wars . Nobody wins trade wars, except general who end up fighting the physical wars when they happen. This is very dangerous. Rogers also explains : A continuation of bailouts in Europe could ultimately spark another world war, says international investor Jim Rogers. *** “Add debt, the situation gets worse, and eventually it just collapses. Then everybody is looking for scapegoats. Politicians blame foreigners, and we’re in World War II or World War whatever .” And Marc Faber says that the American government will start new wars in response to the economic crisis: “The next thing the government will do to distract the attention of the people on bad economic conditions is they’ll start a war somewhere.” “If the global economy doesn’t recover, usually people go to war.” Faber also believes the U.S., China and Russia may go to war over Mideast oil . Average: 4.72222 Your rating: None Average: 4.7 ( 18 votes) Tweet George Washington's blog Login or register to post comments 19314 reads Printer-friendly version Send to friend Similar Articles You Might Enjoy: Japan Machinery Orders Implode As Global Economy Grinds To A Halt Marc Faber Jim Rogers On Our "Clueless, Ignorant, Dangerous" Leaders 150 Seconds Of "You Can't Handle The European Truth" From Kyle Bass Guest Post: Cashing In On Japan's Debt Conundrum? Kyle Bass: Fallacies Such As MMT Are "Leading The Sheep To Slaughter" And "We Believe War Is Inevitable"
by Lina Zeldovich Do you diligently read product labels and ask dozens of questions before buying a toothbrush? Do you need to know exactly how a new face cream will repair your skin while you sleep? You’re probably an “explanation fiend 魔鬼；能手；成癖者 :" a consumer who makes decisions based on comprehensive research. On the other hand, if endless descriptions of features and functionalities bog you down 使你陷入困境 , you’re probably an intuitive buyer, or an “explanation foe,” a new study suggests . A team led by Philip Fernbach , professor of marketing at the University of Colorado, and Steven Sloman , a cognitive psychologist at Brown, found that consumers fall into two distinctive groups: intuitive shoppers who prefer only basic information about a product before bagging it, and data-driven buyers who seek full details. To identify their “shopping style,” study participants were evaluated on something called the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) . They answered three tricky questions, each of which had an intuitive answer that was incorrect and a correct answer that required a bit more deliberation. Nearly half of the participants got all three questions wrong, and only ten percent thought the questions through enough to get all three right. Individuals with high CRT scores proved to be explanation fiends who analyze and question every bit of information, while those who picked the intuitive, but wrong, answers turned out to be explanation foes, who see too much data as a burden. Both types of shopper want to understand how a product works before deciding its worth, but their methods of building that understanding are different. When "explanation fiends" learned more about a product, they trusted it more and were more willing to buy it. But "explanation foes" felt confident in their assessment of a product—even when they were light on information about it. Both fiends and foes 敌人；反对者；危害物 also had to generate their own explanations of how products work, thus revealing what they actually understood. Data-driven explanation fiends began with a conservative assessment of their understanding, which didn’t change once they explained their perception of the product. On the contrary, the intuitive explanation foes demonstrated something called "the illusion of explanatory depth:" They started with a strong sense of understanding that plummeted as they tried to explain what they actually understood. Being an explanation fiend or foe is an indication of personality, not intelligence, Fernbach notes. However, marketers might be able to predict how certain types of consumers will respond to varying levels of detail. “In the general population there will be more explanation foes than among technical population,” for example, Fernbach explains. “Engineers will be more interested in how things work than an average consumer.” Such knowledge, he says, can help marketers tailor the explanation level for the community of consumers they are targeting, satiating the thinkers and shielding v. 保护（shield的ing形式） intuitive minds from information overload. 文献下载地址： http://www.jstor.org/stable/info/10.1086/667782 若您无法下载 可求助
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