Beyond the Blues Recognize that a depressive disorder is more than the blues. Without treatment, depression can last for weeks, months, even years. The first step is to see your primary care physician. Diagnosis Is Key A big reason to head to the doc: Some medications and medical conditions can cause symptoms that seem like depression. Your doctor will work to rule out these possibilities. How to Find Support If you don't have a primary care doctor, talk with a nurse, social worker, or religious counselor. Ask him or her for a recommendation on where to get help. Or look under "mental health," "social services," and "hotlines." A community mental health center also can be a great resource. Or call the free, 24-hour National Suicide Prevention Lifeline at 800-273-TALK (8255). Talk It Out People with mild depression may do well with only psychotherapy. Most people with moderate to severe do best with a combination of psychotherapy and medication. The medication quickly relieves symptoms, while therapy helps you cope with life's problems.
Editor's note: David Gergen is a senior political analyst for CNN and has been an adviser to four presidents. A graduate of Harvard Law School, he is a professor of public service and director of the Center for Public Leadership at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government. Follow him on Twitter at @david_gergen. The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author. (CNN) -- Coming home from Asia, Barack Obama is obviously going through another rough patch in his presidency. But this time, it could be more dangerous: He is perilously close to becoming a lame duck 33 months before he leaves office. That is bad for him, bad for the country and bad for the world. The second term of a presidency often follows an arc. As Lyndon Johnson told his aides after his landslide victory in 1964, you've got about a year to get things done at home. And second-term presidents have often seized on those early months for domestic accomplishments. After that, Washington becomes mired in midterm politicking, and in your third year, people start looking over your shoulder at who is coming next. With power seeping away at home, second-termers increasingly turn their attention overseas, where they can still get big things done as commander in chief of the most powerful nation in history. That's why presidents spend so much time on the road in their final years. David Gergen Obama's second term is a total aberration. Resisted by obstructionists among Republicans and plagued by his own mistakes, the first 12 months after re-election were a bust. Why he and his team didn't take more care in the rollout of the Affordable Care Act website will remain one of the great mysteries for historians. But it has now become equally puzzling why he has not become more sure-footed in foreign affairs. He is one of the brightest men ever to occupy the office, and yet his learning curve has been among the flattest. Talking to players on the world stage -- most of whom still want him to succeed -- one finds them genuinely rattled, worried about a lack of national will and operational competence. On the tail end of his Asia trip, Obama told the press that in foreign policy, he thinks a president hits mostly singles and doubles and an occasional home run. It was odd enough that given his huge power and influence, he thinks small ball. But he also raised the question: Why so long between home runs? When was the last one? Three years ago with Osama bin Laden? Not to overdo his analogy, but the years since have brought a notable string of strikeouts. The administration would vigorously disagree, but just how much success can it genuinely claim in Syria, Egypt, Libya or even Iraq? Or the Russian reset? Or Ukraine? New poll shows wrong track blues New poll shows wrong track blues The administration's increasing focus on Asia is a welcome move, but it too has gone less well than expected. Experts have long said that much of the success of the famous "pivot" will depend upon completion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the most important trade agreement in decades. To its credit, the administration has aggressively pursued the deal but to little avail. The President's trip to Tokyo revealed that the partnership is in serious trouble, mired down by domestic politics in both the U.S. and Japan. Obama did provide much-needed assurances to Japan about American credibility as a military ally. Still, the facts remain that even as the U.S. cuts defense spending, China is boosting its defense budget by 12% and flexing its muscles off its shores. With nationalism on the rise across Asia and sparks starting to fly, who can be certain that America will be there to put out a fire? The net result is of a president who sadly seems diminished both at home and abroad. He appears to have only minimal objectives with the current Congress -- passage of a higher minimum wage and pieces of an immigration bill -- and may not get either. Most Americans still want him to succeed, but when television executives put him on the air, audiences often melt away. Even before the midterms, voters are looking over his shoulder at who comes next. "Waiting for Hillary" is a bigger story than "What Happened to Obama?" And there are few prospects for home runs overseas. This is bad news and not just for the President's personal fortunes. America needs a strong, effective president year in, year out, to help propel us forward. Our success as a people has depended on our capacity to solve the problems of today so we can move on to tomorrow. The endless evasions and diversions are tying us in knots and draining our spirits. The world needs strong, effective American leadership as well; for all our mistakes like Iraq, the U.S. is the one nation that still has the power to keep world order. But in the twinkle of an eye, we have gone from being indispensable to indisposed. There is no obvious game plan for Obama to bounce back. It would help if he and his team promised less and delivered more. It would help if more Republicans put the country first. The White House must also avoid the clear danger of so eagerly wanting a big breakthrough -- say, in negotiations with Iran -- that it weakens our security. No deal is always better than a bad deal. But mostly, the Obama team probably has to be patient. Fresh opportunities for leadership will come; they always do at the White House. And for all his troubles, the President retains enormous powers and public good will. It is in not in our national interest to have a lame duck for 33 months.
Is This A 2007 Redux? Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/20/2013 17:06 -0400 Ben Bernanke Bond China Eurozone Federal Reserve Goldilocks Gross Domestic Product Guest Post John Hussman Market Timing Price Action Reality Recession Submitted by Lance Roberts of Street Talk Live blog , I read a very interesting prediction from noted market bull Jeff Saut who, in an interview with Eric King of King World News , stated that: "For the past two and a half months I have targeted tomorrow, July 19th, as the intermediate-top on both my quantitative timing and technical models. So I think tomorrow is the potential turning point for the first meaningful decline of the year. I have been raising cash for the past few weeks and I think this correction in the stock market will be roughly 10% to 12%. It's just a question of, is this thing going to end with a whimper, or is it going to end with a bang? The shorts have been absolutely destroyed here. We could see a blue-heat move that carries the SP 500 somewhere between 1,700 and 1,730. That would be the ideal pattern, but they don't operate the market for my benefit so you have to take what they give you. I don't think anybody can time the market on a consistent basis, but if you listen to the message of the stock market you sure as heck can decide when you should be 'playing hard' and when you should not be playing as hard, and so I'm not playing that hard right here." Whether, or not, Jeff is right about the exact date of the market top it does bring attention to the recent correction and subsequent rally to new highs. Was that correction just a pullback in an ongoing upward bullish trend or is the beginning of a more major topping process much as we saw in 2007? The chart below shows the price action of the market from 2003-2008 as compared to 2009 top. The interesting thing about the historical price action is the potential timing of the Federal Reserve's "tapering" of the current bond buying scheme. The market advance prior to 2008 which was driven by excess liquidity derived from the credit boom cycle - the current advance has been driven almost entirely by the liquidity pushed into the system by the Federal Reserve. The extraction of that liquidity could well mark the top of the current cyclical bull advance later this year or in early 2014. It is not just price patterns that have me concerned but rather other similarities between these two advances that should be noted as well. Leverage The next chart below is the amount of leverage in the financial system as measured by the level of margin debt. Margin debt has currently risen to an all-time high during the current liquidity cycle much the same as was witnessed prior to the financial crisis. As you can see spikes in margin debt, as market exuberance begins to form, generally takes place near market peaks. The current spike in margin debt to record levels is not necessarily a sign of good things to come. Valuations Market valuations have been expanding over the last couple of quarters as prices have been artificially inflated while earnings growth has deteriorated. The result has been a push of market valuations, as measured by P/E ratios, to levels in excess of those witnessed at the prior market peak. The chart below shows reported trailing twelve month price-earnings ratios for the seven quarters leading up to the peak in earnings. While valuation measures are historically horrible market timing devices, especially when the market is being pushed by liquidity, they do give some insight as to extremes. I should not have to remind you that post the peak in reported earnings in 2007 they fell sharply to a low of just $6.86 per share by March of 2009. Of course, at the peak in 2007, the economy was growing, there was no threat of recession, housing related issues were "contained" and Bernanke calmly explained that we were in a "goldilocks economy." Just six months later the economy was in a recession and the financial crisis had set upon us. While I am not saying that the same thing is about to happen - what does concern me is the extreme amount of confidence that currently exists that we have once again entered into that same "goldilocks" state. Earnings Of course, you cannot really discuss P/E ratios without discussing the trend and trajectory of earnings. Reported earnings were steadily rising as we entered into the peak of valuations in 2007. At that time the belief was that market prices would continue to rise along with earnings. The problem was that belief was quickly shattered as the initial waves of the recession began to set in. Currently, that same belief is once again largely prevalent. The chart below shows the historical trend of reported trailing twelve months earnings per share versus the stock market. Despite the fact that earnings have been stagnating for several quarters now; the belief is that at just any moment the economy will kick into gear and earnings will play catchup with rapidly rising valuations. This has historically been a losing proposition. Valuation excesses tend to be mean reverting through a fall in the numerator rather than a rise in the denominator. Economic Growth Looking at earnings, valuations and price are all important to whether or not we are currently near a peak in the financial markets. However, ultimately, it is the economy that will drive all of these issues in the future. The chart below shows annualized growth rates of quarterly real GDP for the periods of 2004 through 2007 and 2009 to present. The importance here is that in both cases the actual rate of economic growth peaked near the middle of the economic cycle and then began to wane. The polynomial trend lines shows this a little more clearly. Of course, as stated above, despite clear evidence that the economy was beginning to struggle the inherent belief by most mainstream analysts and economists was that the "soft patch" would quickly recover. Unfortunately, that was not the case. The impact of the recession in the Eurozone, and the slowdown in China, is clearly impacting corporate earnings and revenue which puts the current market at risk. Is This A Market Top? Mr. Saut's very bold prediction that we are likely making a market top currently is certainly attention grabbing. The reality, however, is that the current "liquidity driven exuberance" could keep the markets "irrational" longer than logic, technicals or fundamentals would dictate. Are we likely forming a market top? It is very possible. We saw the same type of market action towards the last two market peaks. However, it will only be known for sure in hindsight. The many similarities between the last cyclical bull market cycle and what we are currently experiencing should be at least raising some warning flags for investors. The levels of speculation, leverage, price extensions, duration of the rally, earnings trends and valuations are all at levels that have historically led to not so pleasant outcomes. John Hussman summed it up well recently when he stated: "Given the present evidence, however, my real concern is that much like the rolling tops of 2000 and 2007, each pleasant breeze here lulls investors into complacency – but in the face of overvalued, overbought, over bullish conditions that, from a cyclical and secular standpoint, should probably have them wide-eyed with terror. We can't rule out that the bough will sway for a while longer despite the weight, but we won't embrace the situation by putting our own baby on the twigs. It's quite crowded up there already." 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China's Red Flags Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/19/2013 22:49 -0400 China Copper default Government Stimulus Gross Domestic Product Money Supply Newspaper Recession Shadow Banking Yield Curve UPDATE: China 7-day repo +374bps to 12%! China Flash PMI 48.2 (49.1 exp) - lowest in 9 months; worst 3-month plunge since Feb 2011. Via Market News International: HSBC chief China economist Qu Hongbin on June flash PMI (48.3 vs 49.2): "The HSBC China Flash Manufacturing PMI dropped to a nine-month low of 48.3 in June, following on the sequential reduction in both production and demand. Manufacturing sectors are weighed down by deteriorating external demand, moderating domestic demand and rising destocking pressures. Beijing prefers to use reforms rather than stimulus to sustain growth. While reforms can boost long-term growth prospects, they will have a limited impact in the short term. As such we expect slightly weaker growth in 2Q ." All these major liquidiaty problems do make us think a little about the end of CCFDs and as we warned "The Bronze Swan" as financing via copper collateral is under pressure and the bank that 'own; the warehoused copper have no need to hold (and in fact are willing sellers as the carry costs rise)... Following the hushed-up default by Everbright Bank last week , the liquidity situation in China has gone from bad to worse - with 1Y IRS now at all-time record highs. Many are now questioning whether the dramatic elevation in short-term financing rates is "here to stay," and with the Chinese yield curve now inverted... ...in a similar fashion as the US Treasury market prior to the US recession in 2007... and for a similar period before the US recession... the clarion call for government stimulus is loud from the addicts. However, as HSBC notes today, since the government is now putting more emphasis on balanced growth and market reforms , it will tolerate GDP growth in the 7-7.5% range and will therefore take no strong measures to boost growth unless there is a risk of growth slowing to 7%. The markets, even though the Shangahi Composite is trading at near-seven-month lows... ...will be disappointed; and we suspect, as the FT notes , that "the central bank wants to send a warning signal to commercial banks and other credit issuers that unchecked credit expansion, particularly through the shadow banking system, will not be accommodated ." As the PBoC itself noted (via its state-owned newspaper) and we confirmed yesterday , " we cannot use fast money supply growth as in the past, or even faster, to promote economic growth , and must control the pace of money supply growth." But macro data is almost as bad as it has ever been... Simply put, as Stan Druckenmiller noted here previously , In essence, the frantic stimulus China put together at the end of 2008 sowed the seeds of slower growth in the future by crowding out more productive investments. Despite all efforts to slow inflation (and rein in the credit bubble ), the hot money imported from the Fed and the BOJ continues to push home prices ever higher which continues to be the key marginal variable for the PBOC - as long as the hot "carry" money is exported by the Fed and the BOJ , the Chinese economy will continue to suffer . Average: 5 !-- - advertisements - .AR_2 .ob_empty {display: none;} .AR_2 .rec-link {color: #565656;text-decoration: none;font-size: 12px;} .AR_2 .rec-link:hover {color: #565656;text-decoration: underline;font-size: 12px;} .AR_2 {float: left;width:50%} .AR_2 li {list-style: none outside none !important;font-size: 10px;padding-bottom: 10px;line-height: 13px;margin:0;} .AR_2 .ob_org_header {color: #000000;text-decoration:bold; margin-left: 0px; font-size:14px;line-height:35px;} .AR_3 .rec-link {color: #565656;text-decoration: none;font-size: 12px;} .AR_3 .rec-link:hover {color: #565656;text-decoration: underline;font-size: 12px;} .AR_3 .rec-src-link {font-size: 12px;} .AR_3 li {padding-bottom: 10px;list-style: none outside none !important;font-size: 10px;line-height: 13px;margin:0;} .AR_3 .ob_dual_left, .AR_3 .ob_dual_right {float: left;padding-bottom: 0;padding-left: 2%;padding-top: 0;} .AR_3 .ob_org_header {color: #000000; text-decoration:bold; margin-left: 0px; font-size:14px;line-height:35px;} .AR_3 .ob_ads_header {color: #000000; text-decoration:bold; margin-left: 0px; font-size:14px;line-height:35px;} -- Login or register to post comments 4705 reads Printer-friendly version Send to friend Similar Articles You Might Enjoy: On The Fun (But Pointless) Debate Between Rick Santelli And Rich Bernstein On What The Yield Curve Indicates (In A Time Of Central Planning) Goldman Reveals The First 5 Of Its Top Trades For 2011 Guest Post: The Economic Death Spiral Has Been Triggered IMF Cuts Global Growth, Warns Central Banks, Whose Capital Is An "Arbitrary Number", Is Only Game In Town Financial Lexicon 101: Summary Of Key Terms
Time For Bernanke To Retract His Sworn Testimony To Congress Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/03/2012 20:44 -0500 Ben Bernanke Gross Domestic Product JPMorgan Chase Testimony Three months ago, as part of our ongoing explanation of what happens next to the Fed's balance sheet (which is now established as official canon in advance of the December 12th FOMC, when Bernanke will effectively announce QE4 consisting of $40 billion in MBS and $45 billion in unsterilized TSY purchases as we predicted the day QE3 was announced ), we said that "the Fed will continue increasing its 10 Yr equivalents by roughly 12% (of the total market) per year, for at least the next 3 years, at which point it will own 60% of the entire Treasury market. It means that the Fed will monetize all gross long-term issuance every year for the next 3 years ." Most looked at the bold sentence without it registering just what it means. Perhaps, now that the "serious" media has finally taken on the topic of applying a calculator to the one driver of all marginal risk demand, it will register a little better. In a Bloomberg story titled, appropriately enough " Treasury Scarcity to Grow as Fed Buys 90% of New Bonds " we read that "the Fed, in its efforts to boost growth, will add about $45 billion of Treasuries a month to the $40 billion in mortgage debt it’s purchasing, effectively absorbing about 90 percent of net new dollar-denominated fixed-income assets, according to JPMorgan Chase Co ." Actually that's incorrect and it is more like 100%. What is however 100% correct is what the bolded means in plain language: it is now accepted that the Fed will outright monetize all gross US issuance. Let us repeat this sentence for those who just had flashbacks to Adam Fergusson's " When money dies ." The Fed is now monetizing practically all net new debt. So what did the Chairman say about this absolutely certain eventuality back in 2009 to Congress... Our only question: was the Chairman simply lying of lying under oath? And finally, because it appears it takes the MSM between 3 and 36 months to catch up to Zero Hedge, there is another relevant question that we posed 3 months ago: Another way of visualizing this is how many assets as a percentage of US GDP the Fed will hold on its books. Currently, this number is 18%. By the end of 2013, the Fed's historical flow operations will be accountable for 24% of US GDP . Why is this important? Simple: when the time comes for the Fed to unwind its balance sheet, if ever, the reverse Flow process will be responsible for deducting at least 24% of US GDP at the time when said tightening happens. If ever. Hence no unwind. We are confident to state this, just as we were confident with our other forecast from three months ago : What is scariest, is that as of this moment, all of this is priced in. Any incremental gains in the stock market will have to come from additional easing over and above what Bernanke just announced. What Bernanke implicitly, and in one week explicitly, has announced is that it now takes $85 billion in monthly Flow injection from the Fed just to keep the market from collapsing . Oh, yes, and the market still has to surpass the highs seen the day after QEternity was announced. Average: 5 Your rating: None Average: 5 ( 43 votes) Tweet Login or register to post comments 16440 reads Printer-friendly version Send to friend Similar Articles You Might Enjoy: What Mitt Romney Also Said: A Glimpse Of The Endgame? The Fed's Balance At The End Of 2013: $4 Trillion Spot The Foreign Demand For US Treasurys Under Obama Guest Post: Why I Don't Vote The Bernanke Put is a Lie
Fed Balance Sheet Composition Update Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/06/2012 11:36 -0400 Bond Recession St Louis Fed System Open Market Account For those curious how the Fed's ongoing takeover of the US bond market looks like, below is a visual update. A simple maturity distribution: Over the week ending October 3rd, the average maturity of the Fed's System Open Market Account (SOMA) treasury holdings increased from 118.03 to 118.62 months. Before the onset of the Maturity Extension Program (MEP), the average maturity of the Fed's treasury holdings was around 75 months. The Fed has surpassed the original average maturity target of 100 months for the first MEP. The average duration of the Fed's (SOMA) holdings increased to 7.31 years (87.67 months) for US Treasuries in the October 3rd week from 87.33 months in the prior week. The measurement of duration risk translates to an average price decrease of approximately 7.31% for each percentage point increase in all yields. The net effect of maturing assets and treasury issuance over the week caused the average maturity of all marketable treasury securities to rise to 65.36 months from 65.28 months. The stock of the Fed's holdings reduced the average maturity of marketable treasury debt held by the private sector by 9.64 months from 9.58 months in the prior week, and the privately held public debt average maturity rose to 55.73 months from 55.70 months. Since the recession, the Fed has lengthened the average maturity and duration attributes of the SOMA. It appears that they have reduced the supply of issues mostly in the seven to ten year range, owning 70% of some issues in that range. And the punchline: The amount of ten-year equivalents held by the Fed increased to $1.333 trillion from $1.325 trillion in the prior week, which reduces the amount available to the private sector to $3.550 trillion. There were $4.884 trillion ten-year equivalents outstanding. The Fed owns 27.2% of the bond market expressed in 10 year equivalents. Assuming the Fed's balance sheet rises to $5 trillion by the end of 2014, this number will rise to nearly 60%. Source: SMRA and St Louis Fed Average: 5 Your rating: None Average: 5 ( 6 votes) Tweet Login or register to post comments 8551 reads Printer-friendly version Send to friend Similar Articles You Might Enjoy: The Fed Now Owns 27% Of All Duration, Rising At Over 10% Per Year Wall Street Gives Treasury Its Blessing To Launch Floaters; Issues Warning On Student Loan Bubble Is the Ten-Year going to 3%? 3bps To Go Until QE3 Makes Treasuries America's Second Safest Security Behold The Fed's Takeover Of The Bond Market
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