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摘要翻译：
基于两种对立力量（保守主义/惰性和投机性羊群“泡沫”行为）之间的斗争，勾勒出人类社会创新与进步的一般理论。我们认为，人类事务的特点是无处不在的“泡沫”，它涉及巨大的风险，否则使用标准成本/效益分析是无法承担的。泡沫产生于自我强化的正反馈。这导致探索未知的领域和生态位，其罕见的成功导致非凡的发现，并为观察到的技术和经济的加速发展提供了基础。但回报非常不均匀，风险很大，可能不会发生。换句话说，泡沫是人类活动的特征定义，它允许巨大的风险在大范围内获得巨大的回报。我们概述了一些潜在的数学结构和一些结果，涉及正反馈、涌现、重尾幂律、离群值/国王/黑天鹅、可预测性问题和控制假象，以及一些政策含义。
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英文标题：
《Nurturing Breakthroughs: Lessons from Complexity Theory》
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作者：
Didier Sornette (ETH Zurich)
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最新提交年份：
2007
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分类信息：
一级分类：Physics 物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society 物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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英文摘要：
A general theory of innovation and progress in human society is outlined, based on the combat between two opposite forces (conservatism/inertia and speculative herding "bubble" behavior). We contend that human affairs are characterized by ubiquitous ``bubbles'', which involve huge risks which would not otherwise be taken using standard cost/benefit analysis. Bubbles result from self-reinforcing positive feedbacks. This leads to explore uncharted territories and niches whose rare successes lead to extraordinary discoveries and provide the base for the observed accelerating development of technology and of the economy. But the returns are very heterogeneous, very risky and may not occur. In other words, bubbles, which are characteristic definitions of human activity, allow huge risks to get huge returns over large scales. We outline some underlying mathematical structure and a few results involving positive feedbacks, emergence, heavy-tailed power laws, outliers/kings/black swans, the problem of predictability and the illusion of control, as well as some policy implications.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/0706.1839
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