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摘要翻译：
实施大型信息和通信技术(IT)项目具有很大的风险，很容易扰乱业务，浪费纳税人的钱，并造成负面宣传。由于风险较高，ZF领导对随之而来的风险进行管理就显得尤为重要。我们分析了1,355个公营部门资讯科技项目的样本。样本包括大型项目，平均实际支出为1.3亿美元，平均持续时间为35个月。我们的调查结果表明，典型的项目没有成本超支，平均比最初预期的时间长24%。然而，将风险分布与规范的细尾分布模型相比较，100个项目中有近99个项目的实际成本应该在预算的-30%和+25%以内。然而，数据显示，所有项目中有惊人的18%是超支超过25%的异常值。测试显示，标准软件（24%）和某些项目类型，例如数据管理(41%)、办公室管理(23%)、电子政务（21%）和管理信息系统（20%）出现异常值的风险更高。分析还表明，项目工期增加了风险：项目工期每增加一年，平均成本风险就增加4.2个百分点。最后，我们提出了公共部门组织可以采取的四种解决方案：（1）对您的组织进行基准测试，以了解您的位置；（2）消除IT项目决策的偏见；（3）减少IT项目的复杂性；以及（4）开发Masterbuilders以学习领域中最好的。
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英文标题：
《Overspend? Late? Failure? What the Data Say About IT Project Risk in the
Public Sector》
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作者：
Alexander Budzier and Bent Flyvbjerg
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最新提交年份：
2013
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分类信息：
一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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英文摘要：
Implementing large-scale information and communication technology (IT) projects carries large risks and easily might disrupt operations, waste taxpayers' money, and create negative publicity. Because of the high risks it is important that government leaders manage the attendant risks. We analysed a sample of 1,355 public sector IT projects. The sample included large-scale projects, on average the actual expenditure was $130 million and the average duration was 35 months. Our findings showed that the typical project had no cost overruns and took on average 24% longer than initially expected. However, comparing the risk distribution with the normative model of a thin-tailed distribution, projects' actual costs should fall within -30% and +25% of the budget in nearly 99 out of 100 projects. The data showed, however, that a staggering 18% of all projects are outliers with cost overruns >25%. Tests showed that the risk of outliers is even higher for standard software (24%) as well as in certain project types, e.g., data management (41%), office management (23%), eGovernment (21%) and management information systems (20%). Analysis showed also that projects duration adds risk: every additional year of project duration increases the average cost risk by 4.2 percentage points. Lastly, we suggest four solutions that public sector organization can take: (1) benchmark your organization to know where you are, (2) de-bias your IT project decision-making, (3) reduce the complexities of your IT projects, and (4) develop Masterbuilders to learn from the best in the field.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1304.4525
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