新冠肺炎疫情中的供需冲击：一个行业和 职业视角

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摘要翻译：
我们对与新冠肺炎疫情相关的美国经济在单个职业和行业层面的第一订单供需冲击进行了定量预测。为了分析供应冲击，我们将行业分为必要或非必要，并构建了远程劳动力指数，该指数衡量不同职业在家工作的能力。需求冲击是基于美国国会预算办公室对严重流感疫情可能影响的研究。与前Covid时期相比，这些冲击将威胁美国经济约22%的国内生产总值，危及24%的就业机会，并使总工资收入减少17%。在工业一级，运输等部门的产出可能受到需求冲击的制约，而与制造业、采矿业和服务业有关的部门则更有可能受到供应冲击的制约。娱乐、餐饮、旅游面临较大供需冲击。在职业层面上，我们表明高工资职业相对不受不利的供需方面的冲击，而低工资职业更容易受到冲击。我们应该强调，我们的结果只是一阶冲击--我们期望它们会被生产网络中的反馈效应大大放大。
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英文标题：
《Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: An industry and
  occupation perspective》
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作者：
R. Maria del Rio-Chanona, Penny Mealy, Anton Pichler, Francois Lafond,
  Doyne Farmer
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最新提交年份：
2020
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分类信息：

一级分类：Economics        经济学
二级分类：General Economics        一般经济学
分类描述：General methodological, applied, and empirical contributions to economics.
对经济学的一般方法、应用和经验贡献。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Economics        经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
--

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英文摘要：
  We provide quantitative predictions of first order supply and demand shocks for the U.S. economy associated with the COVID-19 pandemic at the level of individual occupations and industries. To analyze the supply shock, we classify industries as essential or non-essential and construct a Remote Labor Index, which measures the ability of different occupations to work from home. Demand shocks are based on a study of the likely effect of a severe influenza epidemic developed by the US Congressional Budget Office. Compared to the pre-COVID period, these shocks would threaten around 22% of the US economy's GDP, jeopardise 24% of jobs and reduce total wage income by 17%. At the industry level, sectors such as transport are likely to have output constrained by demand shocks, while sectors relating to manufacturing, mining and services are more likely to be constrained by supply shocks. Entertainment, restaurants and tourism face large supply and demand shocks. At the occupation level, we show that high-wage occupations are relatively immune from adverse supply and demand-side shocks, while low-wage occupations are much more vulnerable. We should emphasize that our results are only first-order shocks -- we expect them to be substantially amplified by feedback effects in the production network.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.06759

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关键词：Quantitative Contribution Constrained QUANTITATIV Predictions 肺炎 shocks 供需 冲击 first