发帖
雷达卡
JPM_Key_Trades_and_Risks_2011-08-17_659912.pdf
(4.43 MB, 需要: 3 个论坛币)
关于新兴国家最新的投资策略！2011年8月18日出版！共108页
Key Trades and Risks
Emerging Markets Equity Strategy
We are less bearish post the correction. Statistically the chance of a positive 12-month return is high following a 15% correction. Add to what has been working: ASEAN, defensive rather than the BRICs.
Why not buy the BRICs? Inflation. The buy signals are slower economic growth which leads to lower inflation and markets that are insensitive to earnings downgrades.
Today’s concerns in the developed world serve to highlight the structural case for EM long-term outperformance. EM public sector debt and fiscal deficits are a third the level of DM. EM potential nominal GDP growth at 12% is four times DM’s 3%. EM consumption as a share of global consumption at 34% exceeds the share of US consumption at 28%. Once inflation pressures in the BRICs ease, EM equities should outperform DM. Decoupling is occurring within EM with the outperformance of countries without an inflation problem.
Our key trades are:
o Hunker down: UW cyclical/commodities/ energy; OW quality/large caps/defensive earnings;
o China’s demographic destiny: OW ASEAN, automation, consumption;
o Excessive monetary/inflation fears priced in: OW domestic Taiwan and ASEAN;
o OW Quant earnings revision strategy.
Risks appear high, but post the correction investors are mor e aware. Remember developed economies are out of policy bullets and lack consensus on how to manage fiscal stress. Key risks to our view are higher commodity/energy prices (due to supply issues and/or reacceleration
in global growth). For more on risks, please see page 18.
For our ‘Key Trade’ stock ideas, click here to download the Bloomberg sheet.
京公网安备 11010802022788号
