德意志银行：全球宏观经济展望2011年12月（免费）

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2011-12-13_德意志银行_WorldOutlook：Betweensoftpatchandrecession.pdf (1.24 MB)

2011-12-17 22:15:28 上传

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关键词：全球宏观经济 德意志银行 全球宏观 经济展望 宏观经济 免费 银行 德意志

etween “soft patch” and recession ................................................................................................................................ 3
Geopolitics
Merging conflicts? ........................................................................................................................................................... 11
US Equity Strategy
2012 Outlook – value and risk ......................................................................................................................................... 13
European Equities
Like it’s 1993 ................................................................................................................................................................... 16
Bond Market Strategy
Fighting the clock ............................................................................................................................................................ 18
Commodities
Commodities outlook into 2012 ...................................................................................................................................... 20
US
The expansion will continue ............................................................................................................................................ 22
Japan
Marginally positive growth in 2012 ................................................................................................................................. 26
Euroland
A deeper recession ......................................................................................................................................................... 28
Germany: Technical recession in H1 to break positive labour market trend ................................................................... 30
France: Deeper below the waterline ............................................................................................................................... 31
Italy: Fighting the clock .................................................................................................................................................... 32
Spain: Reforming in times of recession .......................................................................................................................... 33
Smaller EMU economies: Crisis not resolved yet ........................................................................................................... 34
UK
A slower recovery than the Great Depression ................................................................................................................ 35
Other European countries
Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Switzerland ........................................................................................................................ 37
Central and Eastern Europe
Only the less open economies can avoid recession ....................................................................................................... 39
Peripheral dollar bloc
Headwinds from Europe taking a toll .............................................................................................................................. 41
Asia (ex Japan)
Growth is slowing gradually as US/EU demand weakens………………………………………………………………….....43
China: Further downward revision to Q1 growth ............................................................................................................ 45
India: A year of below-trend growth ahead ..................................................................................................................... 46
Latin America
Growing but dragged by global trends ............................................................................................................................ 47
Brazil: The government is responding aggressively to keep growth above 3% ............................................................. 49
EMEA
Little room for policy maneuver ...................................................................................................................................... 50
Russia: Growth set to be fuelled by higher investment .................................................................................................. 52
Forecast tables
Key Economic Indicators ................................................................................................................................................. 53
Interest Rates .................................................................................................................................................................. 54
Exchange Rates ............................................................................................................................................................... 55
Long-term Forecasts ....................................................................................................................................................... 56
Contacts ......................................................................................................................................................................... 57

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