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momentum in Asia
Continue to prefer Japanese wireless
over China and Korea – OW NTT
DoCoMo and Softbank; UW LG U+
Downgrade Telstra to N from OW (on
valuation) and eAccess to N(V) from
OW(V) (on increased competition);
retain N on China Mobile
LTE (Long-Term Evolution) launches are accelerating in
Asia, resulting in investment opportunity in some markets
and heightened competition and risks in others.
For China Mobile, we expect TD-LTE service launch in
2H12, with limited earnings impact until 2014. While
the 3G (TD-SCDMA) outlook is much improved,
competition is likely to remain intense.
In South Korea, LG U+ stock has rallied on its
aggressive approach to LTE. We believe higher
competition, in addition to tariff controls, will continue
to undermine the strong demand for smartphones.
In Japan, SoftBank’s launch of a TD-LTE network
should threaten eAccess – previously the leading
wireless broadband provider in Japan. In the wireless
handset market, both NTT DoCoMo and SoftBank
remain well-positioned to benefit from strong demand.
In Australia, we expect a focus on LTE deployment and
spectrum acquisition in 2012, with Telstra facing
renewed competition from Vodafone-Hutchison.
We downgrade Telstra to Neutral from Overweight, as we
believe the superior mobile outlook, high yield and likely
stock buyback in 2012 are now reflected in the share price.
In Japan, we downgrade eAccess from OW(V) to N(V) on
the rapid increase in competition for its eMobile wireless
broadband unit from SoftBank. We remain Neutral on China
Mobile: the key upside risk to our rating is acceleration in
the TD-LTE launch timelines, while the key downside risk is
greater involvement in the wireline market. Our top picks in
Japan remain NTT DoCoMo and SoftBank.
2012-01-17_汇丰银行_AsiaWirelessTelecoms.pdf
(395.28 KB)
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