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【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月全球无线通信设备行业研究报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：52
【目录或简介】：
Executive summary 3
The Capacity Crunch 5
Mobile network supply and
demand 22
“Flat-rate, not flat-line” redux 28
Ericsson 36
Glossary 45
Disclosure appendix 48
Disclaimer 51
Mobile networks are straining under
huge data demand from smartphones
􀀗 4G LTE offers little capacity relief as tech
innovation producing diminishing returns
􀀗 Upgrade Ericsson to OW(V) from N(V),
target price raised to SEK84 (SEK80)
Smartphones threaten operators with a capacity crunch.
Smartphones, and particularly the combination of Apple’s
iPhone plus 100,000 applications in the App Store, are
driving exponential increases in demand for mobile data. As
this trend continues, we believe mobile networks will start to
come under great pressure. The mobile industry has
periodically faced the threat of “capacity crunch” before
though. Ultimately, collapse has been avoided because
technology innovation (a kind of “Moore’s Law Mobile”) has
come to the rescue, driving huge increases in capacity supply
through greater network efficiency. However, as the industry
moves to 4G, our non-consensus view is that technology
alone will not rescue it this time around.
4G little better than 3G as “Moore’s Law Mobile” cracks.
Underlying our fears is the fact that on a like-for-like basis,
4G mobile technology (known as LTE) offers little capacity
gain over today’s 3G networks. This is not because LTE is
badly designed but rather because the laws of radio physics
are proving a major barrier to further progress. Operators
will therefore have to tackle the capacity crunch in other
ways, like building mobile networks more densely to reduce
customers per base station, or offloading traffic to wireline.
Upgrade Ericsson to OW(V) from N(V), target price raised
to SEK84 (from SEK80). We believe Ericsson is a strong
play on this theme, with its critical mobile networks business
benefiting as operators increase capacity by adding more base
stations. We believe Ericsson will capitalize fully on strong
secular demand with a highly competitive proposition, based
on best-in-class products, keen pricing derived from scale
leadership, plus its world-leading outsourcing business which
key rivals like Huawei should find hard to replicate. We raise
our DCF-based target price to SEK84 (SEK80) and upgrade
our rating to Overweight (V) from Neutral (V). A rising tide of
commentary on a potential mobile “capacity crunch” should be
a powerful positive catalyst for the shares.
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