摩根斯坦利：2012年4月中国地产行业研究报告（免费）

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Contents
Investment summary: We remain sanguine................................................................................................................. 3
We started out positive, contrary to consensus… ...............................................................................................................................3
…most pieces fell into place… ............................................................................................................................................................3
…yet we see further scope for outperformance ..................................................................................................................................3
Catalysts are more bottom-up amid partial recovery...........................................................................................................................4
Look for developers in the product sweet spot ....................................................................................................................................4
Improvement in financial leverage will be rewarded............................................................................................................................4
Prefer Both Ends of the Market, Avoid the Middle ...................................................................................................... 6
Look for Financial Flexibility....................................................................................................................................... 11
Preferred Stocks: The Right Product + Positive FCF + Execution .......................................................................... 14
What’s in the price?...........................................................................................................................................................................14
Where do we see outperformance? ..................................................................................................................................................14
Our Valuation Methodology: Discount to Forward NAV ........................................................................................... 18
Appendix 1: Asset Breakdown by City ....................................................................................................................... 19
Appendix 2: 2011 Results Recap................................................................................................................................ 21
Company Analysis ....................................................................................................................................................... 23
China Vanke Co., Ltd.: Consistent mass-market leader; OW................................................................................... 24
Sino Ocean Land: Assume coverage at UW – Challenges remain .......................................................................... 35
China Overseas Grand Oceans Group: Initiate at EW – Needs to expand land bank............................................ 47
Poly (Hong Kong) Investments: Initiate at EW – Weak execution in the price ....................................................... 60

2012-04-11_摩根士丹利亚洲_China Property：Capture the Partial Recovery.pdf (778.06 KB)

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