摩根斯坦利：美国PC硬件行业研究报告2009年11月

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Systems and PC
Hardware
CY10 Revenue Growth Still
Underappreciated; More EPS
Upside Likely
Revisiting our Attractive industry view: We see the
combination of an enterprise refresh cycle and rebuild of
channel inventories driving revenue growth above the
current consensus forecast – we model +9% Y/Y CY10
revenue growth vs. consensus of 7%. And, while
consensus margin expectations have moved higher,
they still under-appreciate historical operating leverage
in a recovery scenario. We see 5%+ upside to
consensus CY10 EPS estimates for the Systems & PC
Hardware group. The stocks with the most attractive
near-term upside are: AAPL, HPQ, NZ, QLGC, EMC.
What’s changed for the better: 1) C3Q09 revenue
results beat estimates and normal seasonality, CIOs
indicate a strong C4Q budget flush, and despite revenue
upside channel inventory levels actually declined since
early Sept.; 2) early signs of reduced margin and ASP
pressure; 3) additional tailwinds could boost CY10 EPS
more than we forecast including currency and buybacks.
What’s changed for the worse: 1) 3Q09 operating
leverage weaker than 2Q09 (though still above our
CY10 forecast); 2) recent supply chain “noise” raises
concerns that EPS revisions may not be sustainable;
and 3) consensus estimates increased, reducing
investor confidence in further share price upside.
How to position within IT Hardware: We like names
that offer: 1) secular growth and product cycle upside
(AAPL, NZ); 2) low growth expectations (HPQ); and 3)
exposure to enterprise spending cycle (EMC, QLGC).
Where we could be wrong: If top-line growth surprises
to the upside, companies may need to invest more in
SG&A, R&D and CapEx than we currently model which
could cause margins to disappoint in the short-term.

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