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KGI:中国市场战略
CHINA MARKET STRATEGY - BACK TO BLUE CHIPS
July 2, 2007， 80 pages
136317.pdf
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The 1H07 A-share rally, especially in April and May, was driven by speculative forces, a phenomenon little seen in this market since 2003. The government’s decision to raise the stock transaction tax to 0.3% from 0.1% in late May points to a determination to rein in short-term trading. In June, quality stocks have re-gained their mainstream position. While we expect the A-share market to consolidate in a relatively wide range in 3Q07, we believe blue chips will significantly outperform low-quality stocks.
The A-share market rally is due mainly to too much money chasing too few shares. The government has recently taken measures to counter this situation. In addition to approving QDII investment overseas, it is encouraging the re-listing in China of Hong Kong-listed Chinese enterprises. Although the impact of these measures on the market
will be moderate in the short term, we believe the long-term impact will be profound.
There are concerns further rate hikes will come on the heels of the recent increase of the CPI. While a 27-bps rate hike is possible in the next couple of months, we think the impact on the market will be minimal. Furthermore, given that the CPI rise is being driven primarily by food prices, which are quite cyclical, we believe that increases of general price levels will start to fall in August and will come down to 2.4% by the end of the year. We also think that inflation will not be a long-term phenomenon in China. The historical experience of Japan and Taiwan suggests that continual appreciation of the local currency tends to bring down import prices which, in turn, help keep consumer prices at a low level.
Our top picks for 2Q07 again performed strongly, with an average return of 30%, higher than the 24% of the market and the 19% of the KGI index. For 3Q07, our top picks are Vanke， Xishan and Power, Jiangsu Miracle, Huaxing Chemical, Laibao Hi-tech, China Merchants Bank, Zhejiang Longsheng and China Enterprise.
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