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2012-10-10 (BNP Paribas S) CHINA CEMENT SECTOR - FIRMING UP, DON’T GET STUCK.6.pdf
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TOC：
CONTENTS
Investment thesis ____________________________________________________________________________ 3
Accepting the new normal economic growth ____________________________________________________ 8
FAI growth to bottom in 4Q12 and rebound significantly in 1H13 __________________________________ 10
Aggressive infrastructure approval, but not supported by new credit yet? __________________________ 11
Industry demand-supply dynamics ____________________________________________________________ 14
Cement demand ____________________________________________________________________________ 14
Cement supply _____________________________________________________________________________ 20
Province rankings in terms of 2012-13E cement outlook _________________________________________ 22
Regional cement price forecast – slightly up in 2013E and flat afterwards __________________________ 29
M&As: Anhui Conch or CNBM – whose style is better? ___________________________________________ 36
Elimination of backward capacity – insignificant to move the needle ______________________________ 37
Appendix I – Sector and Company map ________________________________________________________ 38
Appendix II – China cement and macro statistics ________________________________________________ 42
Appendix III – Valuation charts _______________________________________________________________ 47
Appendix IV – QE3 impact ____________________________________________________________________ 52
Company reports ___________________________________________________________________________ 54
Anhui Conch Cement ________________________________________________________________________ 54
CNBM _____________________________________________________________________________________ 74
Shanshui Cement ___________________________________________________________________________ 95
China Resources Cement ____________________________________________________________________ 115
Sinoma ___________________________________________________________________________________ 132
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