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thought, due to a higher-than-expected fiscal deficit and/or stronger-thanexpected
revenue growth.
􀂄 HONG KONG: Surging inflows into HK may have abated with the “fiscal
cliff” deal, but periodic bouts of global risk aversion will likely continue to
trigger flight to safety in Hong Kong. But we do not expect any change in
currency policy.
􀂄 INDIA: With emerging positive outlook in US and China, and the EU area
economies likely to bottom out by mid-2013, it appears that India will find a
more favorable demand environment in 2013.
􀂄 INDONESIA: Domestic demand is likely to remain strong, helped by
accommodating fiscal and monetary policies.
􀂄 MALAYSIA: The upcoming election could have an important impact on fiscal
and monetary policy if the government adopts a debt-reduction agenda.
􀂄 PHILIPPINES: Fiscal discipline means debt/GDP is falling. Inflation is likely to
pick up although the external surplus – increasingly due to services exports –
should keep the peso strong.
􀂄 SINGAPORE: Growth is anemic but likely to improve in 2013 on the back of
a rise in demand from the US and China. Housing and transportation costs
continue to soar, affecting consumer confidence and rising market distortion
and inefficiencies.
􀂄 SOUTH KOREA: High frequency data suggest that GDP growth remains
below 2.0% in Q4, pointing to fiscal and monetary stimulus. The won’s
relative strength poses downside risks to growth and rates.
􀂄 SRI LANKA: We forecast real GDP growth to improve to 7.0% in 2013, from
a likely 6.2% outturn in the previous year. Excessive monetary easing to
achieve an ambitious growth target could sow the seeds of yet another
boom-bust cycle.
􀂄 TAIWAN: Exports pose upside risks to our Q4 GDP growth forecast.
While Taiwan’s 2013 outlook remains clouded by G3 uncertainties, the TWD’s
strength points to further regulatory responses.
􀂄 THAILAND: Thailand may see GDP growth of over 5.7% in 2012. Strongerthan-
expected growth momentum and rising inflation tilt the risk for rates to
the upside.
􀂄 VIETNAM: GDP growth moves sideways in Q4, as the banking sector
struggles with bad debt. In absence of bank reform, stimulus measures may
lead to further capital misallocation and bad debt.
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