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巴克莱：全球大宗商品研究报告 1302.pdf
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COMMODITY THEMES AND TRADES .......................................................... 3
Reporting on the past ................................................................................................................................ 3
Strategy: Initiating shorts in Brent spreads and nickel....................................................................... 5
COMMODITY INDEX STRATEGY ................................................................... 8
Commodities and inflation: A complex, but rewarding relationship .............................................. 8
The basics .................................................................................................................................................... 8
Which sectors? .......................................................................................................................................... 10
Finding the best inflation hedge ........................................................................................................... 13
Conclusions – mix and match to optimise inflation protection ..................................................... 14
INVESTOR ACTIVITY ...................................................................................... 15
Commodity AUM remains stable at high levels ................................................................................ 15
Index swaps – slow start, but encouraging signs ............................................................................. 16
Exchange-traded products – gold and energy lead flows lower ......................................................... 17
Medium-term notes – improving slowly ............................................................................................. 18
CHARTS AND DATA ....................................................................................... 19
Commodity assets under management .............................................................................................. 19
Commodity investment flows ............................................................................................................... 20
Trends in total commodity investments ............................................................................................. 21
Commodity Index Investments ............................................................................................................. 22
Commodity ETP Investments ................................................................................................................ 23
CFTC data: Positions by market ............................................................................................................ 24
Commodity returns by index and sector ............................................................................................ 26
Commodity returns by strategy ............................................................................................................ 27
Commodity risk premia returns ............................................................................................................ 28
Commodity returns by market .............................................................................................................. 29
PRICE TRENDS .................................................................................................. 30
Price changes ............................................................................................................................................ 30
Price and return forecasts ...................................................................................................................... 31
CALENDAR OF KEY COMMODITY DATA RELEASES .............................. 32
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