诸位大神,虽然知道类似的求助帖不少了,但是仍旧一知半解中,我做的模型是多元回归模型,解释变量有6个(原先有9个,已用SPSS剔除过3个),因为找了大量的指标检验数据,所以这6个解释变量和被解释数据都是一阶单整,并且模型已经剔除了多重共线性,不存在异方差,自相关用DW值无法判断,但是用图形法可以比较直观的看出是不具体有自相关的,完全是使用各大数据库的数据,不存在修改数据和检验结果的事儿,数据质量就是这么好。但是用Johansen做估计有点儿看不懂结果了,请大神们指点:
Date: 04/11/13 Time: 12:44
Sample (adjusted): 2008M03 2012M12
Included observations: 58 after adjustments
Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend
Series: CO2 LA2 LA3 LE1 LE2 LE3 Y
Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 1
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)
Hypothesized Trace 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
None * 0.727512 196.6301 125.6154 0.0000
At most 1 * 0.519476 121.2207 95.75366 0.0003
At most 2 * 0.465858 78.71378 69.81889 0.0082
At most 3 0.278744 42.34233 47.85613 0.1494
At most 4 0.222390 23.39017 29.79707 0.2274
At most 5 0.138866 8.801439 15.49471 0.3841
At most 6 0.002242 0.130167 3.841466 0.7183
Trace test indicates 3 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)
Hypothesized Max-Eigen 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
None * 0.727512 75.40934 46.23142 0.0000
At most 1 * 0.519476 42.50694 40.07757 0.0261
At most 2 * 0.465858 36.37144 33.87687 0.0247
At most 3 0.278744 18.95216 27.58434 0.4182
At most 4 0.222390 14.58873 21.13162 0.3188
At most 5 0.138866 8.671272 14.26460 0.3145
At most 6 0.002242 0.130167 3.841466 0.7183
Max-eigenvalue test indicates 3 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):
CO2 LA2 LA3 LE1 LE2 LE3 Y
-0.060279 -1.282524 -0.191878 -0.004807 -0.024511 -0.040344 0.000483
0.170343 5.290202 -1.128212 0.020403 0.134252 0.312837 -0.004316
0.051516 1.116779 0.067430 0.011225 0.023161 0.408166 0.001328
0.071106 0.937133 -0.608653 0.009880 0.074198 -0.170381 -0.000674
0.048389 -0.564970 0.023602 0.001931 -0.133114 -0.220956 0.000684
-0.091363 1.404216 -0.538139 -0.013603 0.028682 -0.094822 0.000889
-0.074629 -1.921238 0.316026 -0.015335 0.027385 0.031435 1.35E-05
Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha):
D(CO2) 2.861759 -0.302902 -1.102073 0.080025 -0.139819 0.619068 -0.037850
D(LA2) 0.017155 -0.049865 0.002600 0.027067 -0.009536 -0.033539 -0.000962
D(LA3) 0.045172 0.140450 0.108708 0.163257 -0.012504 0.100183 0.004687
D(LE1) 1.299786 0.527340 0.327932 -0.950994 -1.208406 -0.732191 0.344282
D(LE2) 1.761129 -0.420500 1.185398 -0.364601 1.110055 -0.150559 0.028198
D(LE3) -1.042090 -0.186693 -0.799478 0.594949 0.388995 -0.119781 0.029565
D(Y) 71.40170 139.1633 -79.91755 -5.529711 70.13938 -86.25964 2.506471
1 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood -1031.419
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
CO2 LA2 LA3 LE1 LE2 LE3 Y
1.000000 21.27638 3.183147 0.079738 0.406623 0.669279 -0.008013
(5.93423) (1.72350) (0.01348) (0.27935) (0.78078) (0.00486)
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
D(CO2) -0.172505
(0.02635)
D(LA2) -0.001034
(0.00110)
D(LA3) -0.002723
(0.00424)
D(LE1) -0.078350
(0.07098)
D(LE2) -0.106159
(0.02863)
D(LE3) 0.062816
(0.01783)
D(Y) -4.304039
(3.12290)
2 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood -1010.166
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
CO2 LA2 LA3 LE1 LE2 LE3 Y
1.000000 0.000000 24.51714 -0.007365 -0.423350 -1.870077 0.029673
(3.55569) (0.04580) (0.71292) (2.48417) (0.01455)
0.000000 1.000000 -1.002708 0.004094 0.039009 0.119351 -0.001771
(0.12242) (0.00158) (0.02455) (0.08553) (0.00050)
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
D(CO2) -0.224102 -5.272686
(0.07859) (2.36754)
D(LA2) -0.009528 -0.285798
(0.00305) (0.09193)
D(LA3) 0.021202 0.685075
(0.01218) (0.36704)
D(LE1) 0.011478 1.122729
(0.21234) (6.39678)
D(LE2) -0.177789 -4.483221
(0.08513) (2.56469)
D(LE3) 0.031015 0.348860
(0.05324) (1.60399)
D(Y) 19.40140 644.6275
(8.64456) (260.420)
3 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood -991.9800
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
CO2 LA2 LA3 LE1 LE2 LE3 Y
1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 2.267574 0.031419 118.2128 0.604547
(0.48647) (7.59482) (20.8606) (0.14965)
0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 -0.088947 0.020410 -4.791829 -0.025283
(0.02003) (0.31275) (0.85903) (0.00616)
0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 -0.092790 -0.018549 -4.897917 -0.023448
(0.02049) (0.31997) (0.87886) (0.00630)
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
D(CO2) -0.280876 -6.503457 -0.281683
(0.07618) (2.25296) (0.46479)
D(LA2) -0.009394 -0.282895 0.053142
(0.00317) (0.09382) (0.01936)
D(LA3) 0.026802 0.806478 -0.159795
(0.01233) (0.36461) (0.07522)
D(LE1) 0.028372 1.488957 -0.822239
(0.22063) (6.52483) (1.34610)
D(LE2) -0.116722 -3.159393 0.216424
(0.08261) (2.44315) (0.50403)
D(LE3) -0.010171 -0.543980 0.356675
(0.05104) (1.50940) (0.31140)
D(Y) 15.28438 555.3772 -176.0950
(8.72931) (258.163) (53.2602)
4 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood -982.5040
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
CO2 LA2 LA3 LE1 LE2 LE3 Y
1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.788261 -10.51519 -0.019178
(0.77368) (1.97479) (0.01387)
0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.009278 0.257613 -0.000817
(0.02458) (0.06273) (0.00044)
0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 -0.049519 0.369668 0.002075
(0.03188) (0.08137) (0.00057)
0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 -0.333767 56.76905 0.275063
(3.52135) (8.98817) (0.06314)
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
D(CO2) -0.275186 -6.428464 -0.330390 -0.031516
(0.08142) (2.28386) (0.52603) (0.01044)
D(LA2) -0.007470 -0.257530 0.036668 -0.000803
(0.00330) (0.09262) (0.02133) (0.00042)
D(LA3) 0.038410 0.959471 -0.259162 0.005482
(0.01232) (0.34561) (0.07960) (0.00158)
D(LE1) -0.039249 0.597749 -0.243414 -0.001203
(0.23431) (6.57252) (1.51382) (0.03003)
D(LE2) -0.142647 -3.501073 0.438339 -0.007341
(0.08771) (2.46020) (0.56665) (0.01124)
D(LE3) 0.032133 0.013566 -0.005443 -0.001896
(0.05183) (1.45385) (0.33486) (0.00664)
D(Y) 14.89118 550.1952 -172.7293 1.544428
(9.33214) (261.771) (60.2926) (1.19609)
5 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood -975.2096
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
CO2 LA2 LA3 LE1 LE2 LE3 Y
1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -9.093625 -0.016604
(1.34172) (0.00883)
0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.240882 -0.000847
(0.04994) (0.00033)
0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.280364 0.001913
(0.06263) (0.00041)
0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 56.16713 0.273973
(7.79960) (0.05136)
0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 -1.803414 -0.003266
(0.76610) (0.00504)
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
D(CO2) -0.281951 -6.349470 -0.333690 -0.031786 -0.111785
(0.08365) (2.29252) (0.52548) (0.01045) (0.08334)
D(LA2) -0.007931 -0.252142 0.036443 -0.000822 -0.003777
(0.00338) (0.09276) (0.02126) (0.00042) (0.00337)
D(LA3) 0.037805 0.966536 -0.259457 0.005458 0.034044
(0.01267) (0.34719) (0.07958) (0.00158) (0.01262)
D(LE1) -0.097722 1.280463 -0.271934 -0.003537 0.136827
(0.23836) (6.53272) (1.49740) (0.02978) (0.23747)
D(LE2) -0.088933 -4.128221 0.464539 -0.005196 -0.246981
(0.08405) (2.30365) (0.52803) (0.01050) (0.08374)
D(LE3) 0.050956 -0.206204 0.003738 -0.001145 -0.025675
(0.05206) (1.42684) (0.32705) (0.00651) (0.05187)
D(Y) 18.28512 510.5685 -171.0739 1.679901 5.334957
(9.37304) (256.890) (58.8830) (1.17122) (9.33827)
6 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood -970.8740
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
CO2 LA2 LA3 LE1 LE2 LE3 Y
1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.182157
(0.03372)
0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.003538
(0.00079)
0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.007018
(0.00119)
0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.296521
(0.24173)
0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 -0.036098
(0.00741)
0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 -0.018205
(0.00406)
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
D(CO2) -0.338511 -5.480164 -0.666835 -0.040207 -0.094029 -0.701483
(0.08925) (2.30487) (0.55510) (0.01153) (0.08211) (0.23467)
D(LA2) -0.004867 -0.299238 0.054491 -0.000365 -0.004739 -0.014555
(0.00354) (0.09139) (0.02201) (0.00046) (0.00326) (0.00930)
D(LA3) 0.028652 1.107214 -0.313369 0.004095 0.036918 0.051934
(0.01347) (0.34782) (0.08377) (0.00174) (0.01239) (0.03541)
D(LE1) -0.030827 0.252309 0.122086 0.006423 0.115826 0.744847
(0.25954) (6.70279) (1.61428) (0.03353) (0.23878) (0.68243)
D(LE2) -0.075178 -4.339639 0.545560 -0.003148 -0.251299 0.112365
(0.09177) (2.37008) (0.57080) (0.01185) (0.08443) (0.24131)
D(LE3) 0.061900 -0.374403 0.068197 0.000485 -0.029110 -0.518643
(0.05679) (1.46665) (0.35322) (0.00734) (0.05225) (0.14932)
D(Y) 26.16603 389.4413 -124.6542 2.853330 2.860853 1.658936
(9.86283) (254.713) (61.3444) (1.27402) (9.07384) (25.9333)