黄金原油暴跌，美联储QE终结？--经济热点讨论第十六期

看看

精辟

ngl1982 发表于 2013-4-14 17:43
黄金等贵金属的暴跌是一次看空情绪的集中释放，与短期的QE退出预期强弱关系不大。黄金的历史性高点产生于QE ...

黄金的暴跌，分担些白银的风险，不过白银的萎靡已无容置疑。

金价是该下跌了，都长了好久了，再不跌，黄金市场拿什么赚钱，这次下跌肯定又是一次阴谋，或许大家可以去买些黄金储备起来，但是要小心谨慎呀！   推荐大家看看《货币战争》，多了解一些经济阴谋。

Gold price plunges last Friday night by 5.03% to USD1485.6 which is the lowest since last April. WTI Oil price drops by around 3% to USD90.66 which is the lowest since last July as well. As a few reports illustrated, 'Cyprus sell-off fears send gold price tumbling' (Elliott, Larry). The unsolved question was posed by Milko Markov, an investment analyst at SK Hart Management, 'if Cyprus can break the gold market, then there are many reasons to be worried, with Slovenia, Hungary, Portugal, Spain and Italy in line'. At the meantime, if we attribute the fall to the sell-off by Cyprus, how can we interprete the drop of the WTI Oil price.

Admittedly, the market has got the consensus of the bear of Gold due to a number of reasons. For instance, one of them is the rekindling expectation of the end of QE3, although, Peter Newland (economist at Barclays) said 'We continue to expect asset purchases to continue at the current rate for the rest of the year'. According to another person Patrick Legland in SG, 'Low real interest rates have helped gold (reducing the opportunity cost of holding it) but recent falls in [the expectation of] inflation have caused real rates to rise'. As a consequence, he has produced a forecast for an end-year Gold price of USD1375(average USD1500).

The sudden plunge could probably has other reasons. At least, the recent political tension might be the causes leading to the higher volatility of the raw material prices as well. However, before this can be convinced, we still have a lot to do.

信用货币早晚完蛋

学习了～～～

λ·йFΣ98籩ù

й854-8%
л4%
AbcλС
У

本次黄金下跌仅是塞浦路斯抛卖有关，和宏观无关。这是黄金在央行中最基础的作用，即出現债务危机，卖黄金还债以稳定货币。此举韩国在98亚洲风暴用过。
基本的供需关系决定，和宏观数据无关，美元和黄金同时下跌，而且其他货币和大宗商品也没有异动，
假设和上述朋友分析和宏观有关，那么美元指数应大涨到85以上，并且其他大宗商品是系统下跌，跌幅应该在4-8%左右不等，而不是农产品基本上涨，其他包括货币当日波动率没异常。
只有黄金和白银跌4%。
黄金现在走是Abc的第三浪，结合美指下跌，黄金处于支撑位，如出翻转信号，黄金应是结束下跌通道，开始多头运行。
结论：此次下跌属于微观供给影响，就是抛售，和宏观无关，黄金将多头运行，结束空头。

Jealy 发表于 2013-4-14 22:30
金价是该下跌了，都长了好久了，再不跌，黄金市场拿什么赚钱，这次下跌肯定又是一次阴谋，或许大家可以去买 ...

货币战争，关于白银那本人家送给我四本，讲故事的，坦白讲货币战争这些故事我07前看过，胡乱说，建议不要看，没金融基础常识，但宋的想象力好