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The Shibor shock
上海同业拆借利率飙升
China’s central bank allows a cash crunch to worsen
中国央行坐视“钱荒”加剧
BANKS do not keep their doors open an extra half-hour just because their customers need more money. But when the banks themselves are short of cash, things are different. On June 19th China’s interbank market stayed open late as banks scrambled to borrow funds from each other. On June 20th the seven-day repo interest rate shot up to 12%, the highest on record (see chart). The Shanghai interbank offered rate (SHIBOR), an average of the rate at which big banks say they will lend, also rose.
银行不会因为客户需要更多的钱而为其加班半小时。但是当银行自己资金短缺时，情况就不同了。在6月19日，由于银行间争抢着互借资金，中国银行间市场延迟到很晚才收市。6月20日，七天回购利率飙升至有史来最高的12% （见图）。 大型银行贷款的平均利率——上海同业拆借利率 (SHIBOR)同样上涨了。
In a more mature economy such a spike would be “very scary”, notes Tao Wang of UBS. In such economies central banks set the interest rate at which they will provide funds to banks. If they keep this policy rate steady, then interbank rates can surge only if banks start to doubt each other’s creditworthiness.
瑞银集团（UBS）经济学家Wang Tao表示，在一个更加成熟的经济体中，这样的陡升是"很可怕的"。在这样的经济体中，央行制定其贷款给银行的利率。如果央行保持这个政策利率稳定，那么只有当银行间开始质疑彼此的信誉时，同业拆借利率才会上涨。
In China the central bank’s provision of liquidity is more ad hoc. As a consequence “short-lived cash crunches” are not unusual, says Mark Williams of Capital Economics. This crunch began innocuously enough. Deposits were drained by companies paying taxes and customers withdrawing money in advance of the Dragon Boat holiday on June 10th-12th. A crackdown on illicit capital inflows hit another source of liquidity.
中国央行的流动性供给更具有临时性。结果造成了短期的资金短缺，Capital Econimics 公司（注1）的马克•威廉姆斯 (Mark Williams) 认为这并不稀奇。刚开始时，此次“钱荒”并未引起人们的注意。由于公司缴税、客户在端午节假期（6月10-12日）前预先提款，银行存款大量流失。而ZF对非法资本流入的打击又阻挡了流动性的另一个来源。
The surprise was that the central bank then did little to ease the strain. Instead of printing money and buying stuff, it decided to sell three-month bills on June 18th, withdrawing money from circulation. The amount was tiny. But the signal was clear: no help could be expected from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). Banks with money to spare chose to hoard their funds, worsening the crunch for others.
令人意外的是央行之后并未采取措施来缓解资金短缺的局面。央行并未发行钞票和购买债券，而是于6月18日发行三个月央票（注2） ，从而减少了流通领域的资金。虽然数额很小，但它却发出了明确的信号：中国人民银行不会提供任何帮助。而那些贮备资金以备不时之需的银行更加剧了其他银行的“钱荒”。
Why was the PBOC so hard-nosed? It sets an explicit target for money-supply growth and an implicit target for credit growth. These targets are supposed to be consistent with each other and with economic stability. From its point of view, if banks find themselves short of money they must have provided too much credit. That may well be the case. Although straightforward bank loans are under control, banks have simply invented new ways of lending.
为什么中国人民银行这样坚决？中国人民银行负责制定明确的货币供给增长目标和隐性的信贷增长目标。这些目标要彼此一致，有利于经济稳定。从人民银行的角度看，如果银行发现自己资金短缺，那么一定是信贷过度造成的。此次的情况就是如此。虽然银行直接贷款受到控制，但是银行却创造了新的贷款方式。
That is regrettable. But it seems odd to use monetary policy to punish banks for behaviour that the regulator should have prevented. With luck the banks will now slow their lending and conserve their cash, at least until they pass quarter-end regulatory reviews. Some banks, however, may flirt with default. A cash crunch is a terribly clumsy way to curb credit growth. In a more mature economy, a central bank could assert itself in clear, calibrated steps by raising its policy rate. In China the PBOC has instead drawn a line in the shifting sands of credit and waited for banks to discover it.
这种情况令人遗憾。监管部门本应禁止银行这种行为，但奇怪的是监管部门却运用货币政策来惩罚银行。现在，银行将会放缓贷款，贮备资金，如果运气好的话，至少撑到通过监管部门的季末审查为止。有些银行可能会考虑违约。资金短缺是一种可怕的、不灵巧的抑制信贷增长的方法。一个更成熟经济体的央行会采取明确、标准化的步骤来提高政策利率。而中国人民银行却在信贷的“流沙”中画了一条线，并等待银行去发现它。
From the print edition: Finance and economics
注：
1. Capital Economics is one of the leading independent macro-economic research companies in the world, providing research on the US, Canada, Europe, Africa, Asia and Australia, Latin America, and the Middle East and the UK, as well as analysis of financial markets, commodities and the consumer and property sector.
2. 央行如期发行了总额人民币20亿元的91天央票。
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