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| Asia Ex-Japan Weekly Economic Monitor | |
GLOBAL LETTER: US AND JAPAN BUBBLES COMPARED | |
The US, in dealing with its post-bubble clean-up, is very unlikely to go the way of Japan. | |
OVERVIEW: INDIA: MORE RESILIENT THAN BEFORE | |
Even in a US recession, India's growth is unlikely to fall below 7%. | |
PREVIEW | |
We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to focus more on rising inflation than on the downside risks to growth, and thus to hike rates by 25bp. Bank Indonesia should stay on hold due to rising inflation. | |
ASIA OUTLOOK: FAT TAILS | |
Asia ex-Japan's economies are on a knife-edge between overheating and a deep downturn. We are in the overheating camp, but could quickly switch depending on external conditions. | |
CHINA OUTLOOK: THE UNMASKING OF OVERCAPACITY | |
An export-led slowdown could reveal the severity of overcapacity in China. | |
INDIA OUTLOOK: SEEING THROUGH THE SOFT PATCH | |
With the right reforms, India can achieve a potential economic growth rate of 10%. | |
KOREA OUTLOOK: SHIFTING DOWN A GEAR | |
We doubt that domestic demand can fully offset slowing exports in 2008. | |
AUSTRALIA OUTLOOK: STICKY, HIGH INFLATION | |
Notwithstanding downside growth risks, inflation is too high for the RBA to ignore. |
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