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major central banks will likely stay on hold for now.
GLOBAL WEEKLY ECONOMIC MONITOR, 1 AUGUST 2008
GLOBAL LETTER
Of bubbles and speculationExpectations can play a large part in determining prices in a market such as for oil.
UNITED STATES
The song remains the sameWe expect the FOMC to keep holding the funds rate at 2% at next week's meeting.
EUROPE
Time to do nothingThe ECB and the BoE ought to do nothing next week ? which is what we expect.
JAPAN
A gradual downward slopeThe economy looks to be in a downturn, but its trajectory is still very gradual.
ASIA EX-JAPAN
China: Widespread weakeningThe weakening economy and falling asset prices are reinforcing each other.
EMERGING MARKETS
Global inflation and EMInflation picking up relative to the developed world is not so bad for EM credit.
COMMODITIES
A comedy of errorsShort-run inelasticity, market opacity and ?noise? trading can distort energy prices.
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