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- We revised down our 2014 global GDP growth expectations to 3.3% from our November 3.7% estimate, mainly on the back of lower growth in EM, bringing the forecast closer to the long-term growth average. Despite accelerating growth in DM, EM growth performance should remain unchanged from last year. The spread between EM and DM growth rates should therefore fall to 2.6pp, its lowest level since 2001.
- Since the Great Recession, global growth has been hovering near 3.4%, its 40-year average growth rate. Our expectations for close-to-average growth should not be confused with growing at trend. Growth in periods of expansion should be higher than average growth, which encompasses periods of expansion and setback.
- This is consistent with and suggestive of lower potential GDP. Dramatic changes are taking place across the globe to raise potential GDP in the medium term. The issue is that fundamental changes in the structure of an economy can be a short-term restraint. Fixing the road to accommodate faster traffic for the future often entails disruption and delay in the present.
- What we find encouraging though is that with no new cyclical policy stimulus, the global economy seems to be stubbornly and grudgingly improving. This could either be a result of prior stimulus or an underlying genuine improvement of economic activity.
Table of Contents
Global Economy: Speeding up to average 3
US: Perpetual patchiness 12
Japan: A less rosy growth outlook for 2014 17
Summary 17
Background to downward revisions 17
Developed Europe: Boring is good 19
Germany 23
France 25
United Kingdom 27
Italy 29
Spain 31
The Netherlands 33
Greece 35
Portugal 37
Ireland 39
Switzerland 41
Sweden 43
Norway 45
Canada: Another try at rebalancing the economy 47
Australia: Downside surprises to come 48
New Zealand: Economic growth continues to accelerate and broaden 50
Non-Japan Asia: Our high conviction calls 51
China: Embracing higher risks 53
India: Inflation fighting, dismal growth & election issues 56
Indonesia: Re-balancing before rate cutting 59
Korea: Entering a soft patch 61
Emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa 64
Russia: Ukraine tensions prompt monetary policy action 68
South Africa: Adjusting policies as pressure mounts 71
Turkey: No end in sight for the turf war 74
Latin America: Growing pains 78
Brazil: Some fiscal austerity might mitigate the risks of a downgrade 81
Mexico: A transition year 84
Global Demographics & Pensions 87
A demographic perspective on developed labour markets 87
Summary Forecast Table 93
Summary Macroeconomic Data 94
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