分割 partition 积分和 integral sum 可积 integrable 矩形法 rectangle method 积分中值定理 mean value theorem of integrals 函数在区间上的平均值 average value of a function on an integvals 牛顿－莱布尼茨公式 Newton-Leibniz formula 微积分基本公式 fundamental formula of calculus 换元公式 formula for integration by substitution 递推公式 recurrence formula 反常积分 improper integral 反常积分发散 the improper integral is divergent 反常积分收敛 the improper integral is convergent 无穷限的反常积分 improper integral on an infinite interval 无界函数的反常积分 improper integral of unbounded functions 绝对收敛 absolutely convergent 第六章 定积分的应用 Chapter6 Applications of the Definite Integrals 元素法 the element method 面积元素 element of area 平面图形的面积 area of a luane figure 直角坐标又称“笛卡儿坐标 (Cartesian coordinates) ” 极坐标 polar coordinates 抛物线 parabola 椭圆 ellipse 旋转体的面积 volume of a solid of rotation 旋转椭球体 ellipsoid of revolution, ellipsoid of rotation 曲线的弧长 arc length of acurve 可求长的 rectifiable 光滑 smooth 功 work 水压力 water pressure 引力 gravitation 变力 variable force 第七章 空间解析几何与向量代数 Chapter7 Space Analytic Geometry and Vector Algebra 向量 vector 自由向量 free vector 单位向量 unit vector 零向量 zero vector 相等 equal 平行 parallel 向量的线性运算 linear poeration of vector 三角法则 triangle rule 平行四边形法则 parallelogram rule 交换律 commutative law 结合律 associative law 负向量 negative vector 差 difference 分配律 distributive law 空间直角坐标系 space rectangular coordinates 坐标面 coordinate plane 卦限 octant 向量的模 modulus of vector 向量 a 与 b 的夹角 angle between vector a and b 方向余弦 direction cosine 方向角 direction angle 向量在轴上的投影 projection of a vector onto an axis 数量积，外积，叉积 scalar product,dot product,inner product 曲面方程 equation for a surface 球面 sphere 旋转曲面 surface of revolution 母线 generating line 轴 axis 圆锥面 cone 顶点 vertex 旋转单叶双曲面 revolution hyperboloids of one sheet 旋转双叶双曲面 revolution hyperboloids of two sheets
1.The level of productivity differs quite a lot among countries, which serves a major driver of income differences (China, 13% of US for now, and 40% of US in 20 years) 2.Productivity growth differs even more among countries, with average of 1.33% per year for 1975-209 among the fast-growing one-fifth of countries, and -1.42% in the lowest-growing one-fifth countries; 3.Overall, productivity growth explains 68% of the variation in income growth and factor accumulation explains only 32% across countries. 4.How productivity is determined? TFP “a measure of our ignorance?”
5 Univariate time series modelling and forecasting 206 5.1 Introduction 206 5.2 Some notation and concepts 207 5.3 Moving average processes 211 5.4 Autoregressive processes 215 5.5 The partial autocorrelation function 222 5.6 ARMA processes 223 5.7 Building ARMA models: the Box--Jenkins approach 230 5.8 Constructing ARMA models in EViews 234 5.9 Examples of time series modelling in finance 239 5.10 Exponential smoothing 241 5.11 Forecasting in econometrics 243 5.12 Forecasting using ARMA models in EViews 256 5.13 Estimating exponential smoothing models using EViews 258
A Stunning 60% Of All Home Purchases Are "Cash Only" - A 200% Jump In Five Years Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/15/2013 17:29 -0400 10 Year Bond Bond Housing Bubble Housing Market Real estate recovery Remember when housing was the primary aspirational asset for a still existent US middle class, to be purchased with some equity down by your average 30 year-old hoping to start a family in his or her brand new home, and, as the name implies, aspire to reach the American dream? Those days are long gone. Back in those days the interest rate on the 10 Year bond mattered as it determined the prevailing marginal affordability of leveraged real estate. That is no longer the case, at least not for about 90% of Americans, because as Goldman shows, while before the great crisis only 20% of home purchases were "all cash", since then the number has soared threefold, and currently the estimated percentage of cash transactions (by count and amount) has hit a record 60%. In other words, less than half of all home purchases are debt-funded, and thus less than half of all home purchases are actually representative of what middle-class America is doing. Goldman's take: Exhibit 4 shows the estimated cash transactions as percent of total home sales both by transaction count and by transaction dollar amount. Relative to the pre-crisis years, percent cash transactions has risen by about 30 percentage points. This change is broadly in line with the increases suggested by DataQuick data. The 30 percentage point increase in percent cash transactions explains almost the entire decline in the “mortgage per dollar transaction” series (with the remainder explained by small changes in average LTV ratios per mortgage). We do not have data to assess who these all-cash homebuyers are, but presumably investors who have been purchasing distressed properties and turning them into rental units have played an important role. The WSJ has a few thoughts to add: The surprisingly large cash-share of purchases helps to explain why home sales have jumped over the past two years despite more muted increases in broad measures of new mortgage activity, such as the MBA’s mortgage application index. There’s no exact way to know who is responsible for all of these cash purchases, though they are likely to include some combination of investors, foreign buyers, and wealthy homeowners that don’t want to go through the hassle of getting a mortgage before closing on a sale. Mortgage lending standards have sharply tightened up since the housing bubble, with banks scrutinizing borrowers’ tax returns and bank statements to verify their incomes and the source of their down payment. Our personal thoughts: just like the stock market has been levitating on zero volume and virtually no broad distribution, so the entire housing market appears to have morphed into a "flip that house" investment vehicle used by the usual suspects (wealthy foreign oligarchs abusing the NAR's anti-money laundering exemption to park their stolen funds in the US, government sponsored firms such as BlackStone using near zero cost REO-to-Rent subsidies, and other 0.01%-ers) who piggyback on cash flows deriving from alternative cheap credit-funded investments and translate their profits into real-estate investments. It also means that if nobody used leverage (i.e., mortgages) to buy houses before, they certainly won't do it now, all the more so with interest rates soaring and purchase affordability imploding in front of everybody's eyes. Finally, due to the very thin marginal source of bidside interest (flipper flipping to flipper and so on), it means that most of America has not participated in this mirage "recovery", and all it will take to send the buoyant housing market crashing is for the one marginal buyer to become a seller. What they will next find, is that when dealing with a bidside orderbook that has zero depth, one indeed takes the escalator down from where the lofty heights achieved courtesy of Fed-funded stairs. Average: 4.882355 Your rating: None Average: 4.9 ( 17 votes)
Is Stability In Japanese Bonds Signalling Gold's Next Leg Higher? Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/30/2013 19:39 -0400 Bond Mean Reversion Volatility While intraday ranges on Japanese government bonds (JGB) remain relatively high to the last ten years average volatility, the market has begun to deal better with the unprecedented flows from the BoJ day after day. This in turn has compressed the hedges in JGBs (implied volatility has fallen). This has occurred for two reasons: first, Japanese banks (after front-running the BoJ to all-time record low yields) have likely reduced duration (and thus the need for more protection); and second, the initial fear fear has worn off (as we see again and again in volatility flares) and with it the need for preemptive collateral satisfying asset liquidations. As we noted here , there is a very explicit link between the volatility (or risk) associated with one of the world's lowest yield and supposedly risk-free sovereign bond complexes and the need for liquidity (or cash over gold or commodities) . The last two weeks has seen JGB bond vol drop and gold rally as the correlation (which appears to have strong causal links) continues; and suggests notably more upside for Gold (especially as CoT data shows net longs remain extremely low). In short: screaming JGB vol (among other things) pushed gold much lower. How much higher will it pull it back now as the mean reversion reasserts itself? Chart: Bloomberg Average: 5 Your rating: None Average: 5 ( 3 votes)
Fed Balance Sheet Composition Update Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/06/2012 11:36 -0400 Bond Recession St Louis Fed System Open Market Account For those curious how the Fed's ongoing takeover of the US bond market looks like, below is a visual update. A simple maturity distribution: Over the week ending October 3rd, the average maturity of the Fed's System Open Market Account (SOMA) treasury holdings increased from 118.03 to 118.62 months. Before the onset of the Maturity Extension Program (MEP), the average maturity of the Fed's treasury holdings was around 75 months. The Fed has surpassed the original average maturity target of 100 months for the first MEP. The average duration of the Fed's (SOMA) holdings increased to 7.31 years (87.67 months) for US Treasuries in the October 3rd week from 87.33 months in the prior week. The measurement of duration risk translates to an average price decrease of approximately 7.31% for each percentage point increase in all yields. The net effect of maturing assets and treasury issuance over the week caused the average maturity of all marketable treasury securities to rise to 65.36 months from 65.28 months. The stock of the Fed's holdings reduced the average maturity of marketable treasury debt held by the private sector by 9.64 months from 9.58 months in the prior week, and the privately held public debt average maturity rose to 55.73 months from 55.70 months. Since the recession, the Fed has lengthened the average maturity and duration attributes of the SOMA. It appears that they have reduced the supply of issues mostly in the seven to ten year range, owning 70% of some issues in that range. And the punchline: The amount of ten-year equivalents held by the Fed increased to $1.333 trillion from $1.325 trillion in the prior week, which reduces the amount available to the private sector to $3.550 trillion. There were $4.884 trillion ten-year equivalents outstanding. The Fed owns 27.2% of the bond market expressed in 10 year equivalents. Assuming the Fed's balance sheet rises to $5 trillion by the end of 2014, this number will rise to nearly 60%. Source: SMRA and St Louis Fed Average: 5 Your rating: None Average: 5 ( 6 votes) Tweet Login or register to post comments 8551 reads Printer-friendly version Send to friend Similar Articles You Might Enjoy: The Fed Now Owns 27% Of All Duration, Rising At Over 10% Per Year Wall Street Gives Treasury Its Blessing To Launch Floaters; Issues Warning On Student Loan Bubble Is the Ten-Year going to 3%? 3bps To Go Until QE3 Makes Treasuries America's Second Safest Security Behold The Fed's Takeover Of The Bond Market
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