请选择 进入手机版 | 继续访问电脑版
楼主: Dasia
6919 32

[世界经济热点] IMF 世界经济展望 - 2014.1 [推广有奖]

  • 1关注
  • 17粉丝

讲师

26%

还不是VIP/贵宾

-

威望
0
论坛币
11047 个
通用积分
0.1354
学术水平
144 点
热心指数
58 点
信用等级
139 点
经验
11533 点
帖子
88
精华
6
在线时间
34 小时
注册时间
2011-8-7
最后登录
2017-3-5

Dasia 发表于 2014-3-12 10:13:48 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
相似文件 换一批

+2 论坛币
k人 参与回答

经管之家送您一份

应届毕业生专属福利!

求职就业群
赵安豆老师微信:zhaoandou666

经管之家联合CDA

送您一个全额奖学金名额~ !

感谢您参与论坛问题回答

经管之家送您两个论坛币!

+2 论坛币

积极响应版主号召,我来上传好资料!

这个是IMF的世界经济展望(World Economic Outlook)一年发表两期(4月,10月),1月与7月则分别发表10月与4月的修订本(World Economic Outlook Update)。该期刊代表了IMF经济学家对于中短期世界经济发展的官方看法,涵盖了大部分发达国家和发展中国家,以及一些经济热点的分析。附件里上传的是最新的20141月修订本(共3页)和201310月刊(共251页)。帖子里的内容是IMF首席经济学家Olivier Blanchard对于1月份修订本的总结。我归纳如下,希望对大家有帮助:


·   世界经济复苏正在加强,2014年全球经济增长将达到3.7%

·   世界经济复苏是符合预期的。

·   但是,复苏仍然是疲软的,不平衡的。美国的表现将好于欧洲,欧洲核心国家的表现将好于欧洲边缘国家。

·   我们的经济预测存在两个风险:一,发达国家货币政策的正常化将打乱国际资本流动的方向。二,尽管我们预测欧元区将有低通胀,但出现通货紧缩是有可能的。而且通货紧缩越严重,对于欧元区的复苏越不利。



Is the world recovery really strengthening?

Olivier Blanchard, 27 January 2014


The global economy seems to be on the mend. In this column, IMF Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard provides a quick overview of the likely developments. The key points are that the recovery is happening as expected, but it remains fragile and uneven across major economies. Normalising monetary policy poses risks for vulnerable emergingmarkets and deflation is a real concern for the Eurozone.


The IMF’s January 2014 World Economic Outlook Update has three main messages:

  • First,     the recovery is strengthening.
We forecast world growth to increase from 3% in 2013 to 3.7% in 2014. We forecast growth in advanced economies to increase from 1.3% in 2013 to 2.2% in 2014. And we forecast growth in emerging market and developing economies to increase from 4.7% in 2013 to 5.1% in 2014.

  • Second,     this recovery was largely anticipated.
We have revised our forecast for world growth in 2014 by just 0.1% relativeto our October forecast. The basic reason behind the stronger recovery is that the brakes to the recovery are progressively being loosened. The drag from fiscal consolidation is diminishing. The financial system is slowly healing. Uncertainty is decreasing.

  • Third,     it is still a weak and uneven recovery.
Among advanced economies, it is stronger in the US than in Europe, stronger in the euro core than in Southern Europe. In most advanced economies,unemployment remains much too high. And downside risks remain.

Tour d’horizon
The recovery is far from even.


US growth appears increasingly solid. Private demand is strong. As a result of the December budget agreement, fiscal consolidation, which weighted ongrowth in 2013, will be more limited in 2014. These factors lead us to forecast 2.8% growth for 2014, compared to 1.9% in 2013. While monetary policy remains very accommodative, the focus is increasingly turning to monetary policy exit, and we expect the policy rate to rise in 2015.

Japan grew at 1.7% in 2013, and we forecast the same growth rate for 2014.This is good news. But this growth has come largely from fiscal stimulus andfrom exports. For growth to be sustained, consumption and investment have totake the relay. And the Japanese government will continue to face the challenge of achieving enough fiscal consolidation to reassure debt holders while not slowing down the recovery – a difficult challenge.

Conditions are increasingly favourable in the UK and the Eurozone corenations. Public debts are on sustainable paths, and fiscal consolidation is,rightly, slowing down. Credit conditions are favourable. This leads us to predict growth of 2.4% for the UK, 1.6% for Germany, although only 0.9% for France, where confidence is still low.

Southern Europe continues to be the more worrisome part of the worlde conomy. We forecast positive growth for 2014, but this growth is fragile. On the one hand, exports are strong. On the other hand, internal demand is weak, suffering from the loops between weak activity, weak banks, weak firms, and the need for fiscal consolidation. Sustained growth will require cutting those loops, and relying both on external and internal demand.

Emerging market and developing economies
We forecast that growth in emerging market and developing economies, while lower than in the past, will remain high. On the one hand, these countries will benefit from higher advanced growth in advanced economies. On the other, as US monetary policy normalises, they will face tighter financial conditions. We believe that, for most countries, the first effect will dominate the second. On the internal front, perhaps the main challenge is faced by China, which needs to contain the building of risks in the financial sector without excessively slowing growth, a delicate balancing act.


Risks to outlook
We see two main risks to the outlook.


  • First, as the recovery takes hold in advanced economies, a main challenge will be to normalise monetary policy.

While some of this expected normalisation has already been priced in bothlong rates and exchange rates, we can expect complex and sometimes disruptive capital movements across countries for some time to come. In that environment,the evidence from last year is that emerging market economies with weak macro frameworks may be most affected. What we need to decrease this risk is both clear communication by advanced economies’ central banks, and stronger domestic policies in those emerging market economies under stress.

  • Second, while our baseline forecasts are for low but positive inflation in the Eurozone, the risk is that inflation turns into deflation.

There is nothing magical about the number zero – when inflation turns to deflation. But the lower the inflation rate, and a fortiori the larger the deflation rate, the more dangerous it is for the Eurozone recovery.

Deflation means higher real interest rates, higher public and private debt burdens, lower demand, lower growth, and further deflation pressure. To avoid that risk, accommodative monetary policy by the ECB remains of the essence. And so is the strengthening of banks’ balance sheets. In this respect, carrying out the balance sheet assessment and stress test process now under way may be the most important short-term task facing the euro area today.

In short, recovery is indeed strengthening. But much work remains to be done.



我发过的其他帖子:
IMF 世界经济展望 - 2014.1
IMF 世界经济展望 - 2014.4
IMF: 新常态下的货币政策 (Monetary Policy in the New Normal)
IMF 欧元区:通货紧缩or低通胀?
IMF: 财政监测报告(英文版100页) 2014Q1
IMF: 全球金融稳定报告(英文版184页) 2014Q1

瑞信: 页岩革命(The Shale Revolution I & II,英文版,共343页)
瑞信 全球经济季刊 2014.3 - Speeding up to Average
Credit Suisse (瑞信) 中国宏观策略 - 2014.3


二维码

扫码加我 拉你入群

请注明:姓名-公司-职位

以便审核进群资格,未注明则拒绝

关键词:世界经济展望 世界经济 经济展望 IMF Increasingly 经济学家 世界经济 美国 国家 欧洲

World Economic Outlook 201401.zip

6.82 MB

需要: 2 个论坛币  [购买]

本附件包括:

  • 1310.pdf
  • 1401.pdf

回帖推荐

wwqqer 发表于5楼  查看完整内容

热门资料,介绍详细,英语发帖!符合本版新规则,重赏! 如想得到更多奖励,请参阅本版上传奖励新规则! https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-2940206-1-1.html
已有 5 人评分经验 论坛币 学术水平 热心指数 信用等级 收起 理由
zl89 + 40 精彩帖子
123456jiayou + 1 + 1 鼓励积极发帖讨论
chengli + 5 + 5 + 5 精彩帖子
客初 + 40 + 2 + 1 奖励积极上传好的资料
wwqqer + 60 + 60 + 5 + 5 + 5 奖励积极上传好的资料

总评分: 经验 + 140  论坛币 + 60  学术水平 + 11  热心指数 + 13  信用等级 + 11   查看全部评分

本帖被以下文库推荐

312683649 发表于 2014-3-12 10:35:44 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
从股票看,我国经济在下滑?
http://www.xszhb.com
http://ksxx.xszhb.com

使用道具

312683649 发表于 2014-3-12 10:37:10 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
最近一直没有什么好消息呀
http://www.xszhb.com
http://ksxx.xszhb.com

使用道具

Dasia 发表于 2014-3-12 10:41:56 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
美联储政策一收紧,中国经济不会好到哪里去的。

使用道具

wwqqer 在职认证  发表于 2014-3-12 10:52:31 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
热门资料,介绍详细,英语发帖!符合本版新规则,重赏!

如想得到更多奖励,请参阅本版上传奖励新规则!
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-2940206-1-1.html

使用道具

cbkbdm 在职认证  发表于 2014-3-12 13:12:48 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
不错 啊

使用道具

xkfylxtx 发表于 2014-3-12 13:22:55 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
非常不错,下载看看

使用道具

客初 企业认证  学生认证  发表于 2014-3-12 14:40:52 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
谢谢分享,文中有大量的词连在一起,既然成为精华,就要好好重新编辑一下。

使用道具

晏几道 发表于 2014-3-12 14:52:53 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
哇 布兰扎德的东西应该不错
唯一要关心的事情,就是读书和思考。

使用道具

hanxianfeng 发表于 2014-3-12 15:07:55 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
看看

使用道具

您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 我要注册

本版微信群
加JingGuanBbs
拉您进交流群

京ICP备16021002-2号 京B2-20170662号 京公网安备 11010802022788号 论坛法律顾问:王进律师 知识产权保护声明   免责及隐私声明

GMT+8, 2024-3-28 21:36