<p>Executive Summary<br/>A GROWING MARKET The worldwide cancer market growing at 6-11% annually.5,6 With over $206<br/>billion being spent on both direct and indirect costs for cancer, we project the therapeutic market to<br/>grow from $46 billion in 2007 to $89 billion by 2011.7,8 While we believe indirect costs should<br/>decrease over time as novel therapeutics with good side-effect profiles are approved, direct costs will<br/>increase as the baby boom generation ages and costs of therapies increase.<br/>CANCER VACCINES REPRESENT A PARADIGM SHIFT ON THE HORIZON We believe a<br/>paradigm shift in oncology treatments is building on the horizon. Cancer vaccines represent a long<br/>sought after, novel approach to combat existing cancer as well as the potential to prevent the<br/>formation of new tumors. With an ever-increasing list of clinical trials underway, we believe today’s<br/>cancer vaccine companies have designed “better mouse traps” and are well positioned to develop<br/>therapeutics with outstanding efficacy and safety.<br/>NEAR-TERM COMMERCIALIZATION POTENTIAL Based on our analysis of the cancer vaccine<br/>space and the upcoming milestones expected from several of the late stage companies, we believe<br/>the first set of pivotal clinical trial results will be reported from the end of 2007 through 2010. If all<br/>goes well, we believe the first cancer vaccine could be approved by as early as 2009. However, if we<br/>conservatively factor in certain risk scenarios, we believe that the first cancer vaccine could be on the<br/>market by 2011. No matter which scenario we choose, we believe the next 5 years will prove to be<br/>very significant for cancer vaccine companies and their shareholders.<br/>BLOCKBUSTER MARKET POTENTIAL Several of the late stage companies are targeting<br/>indications such as asymptomatic metastatic prostate cancer and follicular non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma.<br/>In combination with a potential therapeutic cost of $25-50,000 in annual treatment, we believe these<br/>indications represent billion dollar market opportunities. Furthermore, while initial therapeutic<br/>indications may represent niche markets, we believe the ultimate use of cancer vaccines will shift to<br/>earlier stage patients with healthier immune systems and less tumor burden, thereby increasing the<br/>potential addressable market to multi-billion dollar opportunities.<br/>BIG PHARMA STARTING TO TAKE NOTICE To date, only a handful of licensing deals have been<br/>consummated. Several of these deals have resulted in big players, including GlaxoSmithKline, Merck<br/>KgaA, and Sanofi-Aventis, launching and evaluating cancer vaccines in ongoing Phase 3 clinical<br/>trials. Going forward, we believe other pharmaceutical companies are likely to take a growing<br/>interest, as the successes of some, and the failures of others, result in an exponentially growing<br/>understanding of the power of cancer immunotherapeutics.<br/>RISK IS ABUNDANT AS WELL Many companies in late stage development are currently facing<br/>binary events within the next 24 months. Furthermore, every success and every failure will likely<br/>result in a rippling effect that impacts the valuation of all the players in the space. Therefore,<br/>investors must not only have intimate knowledge of the companies they invest in but also knowledge<br/>of the companies in the space as well as the timing of binary events.<br/>INVESTMENT OPINION Investing in market leaders with therapeutics in advanced stages of clinical<br/>development, broad pipelines addressing multiple indications, and substantial cash positions to allow<br/>for the continued development of pipeline products, should mitigate some of the risk associated with<br/>the binary nature of clinical and regulatory hurdles. In conjunction with this report, we are initiating<br/>coverage on four immunotherapy companies including Cell Genesys (Market Perform), Dendreon<br/>(Market Perform), Favrille (Market Perform), and IDM Pharma (Market Outperform).</p><p>Table of Contents<br/>PAGE<br/>KEY POINTS 3<br/>EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4<br/>1. THE CANCER VACCINE LANDSCAPE<br/>1.1 Introduction 6<br/>1.2 How Cancer Evades the Immune System 8<br/>1.3 Cancer Vaccines: An Overview 13<br/>1.4 Different Strokes for Different Folks 18<br/>1.5 Public and Private Cancer Vaccine Companies 24<br/>1.6 Take Home Points 30<br/>2. CANCER VACCINE DEVELOPMENT<br/>2.1 Overview 31<br/>2.2 Proof of Principle Clinical Trials 33<br/>2.3 Efficacy Trials 38<br/>2.4 Select Clinical Trials: The Past, Present, and Future 44<br/>2.5 Take Home Points 74<br/>3. VALUING CANCER VACCINE COMPANIES<br/>3.1 Overview 75<br/>3.2 Current Valuation Approaches 76<br/>3.3 Valuing Cancer Vaccine Companies 81<br/>3.4 Let’s Make a Deal 86<br/>3.5 Take Home Points 88<br/>4. APPENDIX<br/>4.1 Immunology Overview 89<br/>4.2 Scientific Background on Prostate Cancer 106<br/>4.2 Scientific Background on Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma 122<br/>4.4 Scientific Background on Osteosarcroma 132<br/>4.5 Scientific Background on Bladder Cancer 135<br/>4.6 Scientific Background on Melanoma 141<br/>4.7 Scientific Background on Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer 147<br/>4.8 Public and Private Company Profiles 178</p><p></p><p>
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