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THE EVOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL OIL MARKETS
• The recent IEA report confirmed our constructive stance on the crude oil markets, confirming that tight fundamentals and key geopolitical events are likely to persist, suggesting that oil prices will remain strong, and possibly move higher. Moreover, while demand in the U.S. remains the key driver, China and India have emerged as strong competitors along with certain non-OECD regions, particularly the Middle East, which should help diversify the demand base, offset, in-part, by declining consumption in OECD Europe and Pacific.
• And while the recent increase in U.S. gasoline prices (national average $3.05) has the potential to curb consumption, we believe the effect will be limited unless we approach $3.50-$4.00 per gallon, as transportation demand, which makes up over half of total product demand and is the largest growth component, is relatively inelastic short-term, given the onset of the summer driving season and deeply ingrained behavioral driving patterns.
• Global oil supply increased a modest 55 Mb/d in April, averaging 85.5 MMb/d, as higher non-OECD production offset lower Russian, North American, and North Sea supplies. OPEC production (including Angola) was unchanged at 30.3 MMb/d. OPEC-10 production is down about 0.9 MMb/d since September, resulting in compliance of about 53% and output 1.5 MMb/d below the peak levels witnessed in July 2006. Despite significant market skepticism, OPEC has successfully managed to maintain oil prices at $55.00-$65.00, largely in-line with our expectations.
• OECD inventories fell 17.1 MMB in March and preliminary 1Q07 data indicates a 930 Mb/d stock draw, the largest first quarter decline since 1996. This implies forward demand cover at 52.2 days, which is up from 51.4 days a year ago. Moreover, there exists the potential for a further draw in inventories near-term given moderate demand, a sharply higher call-on-OPEC and supply disruptions in Nigeria.
• In addition, longer-term supply risks remain, driven by intensifying nationalization and more stringent fiscal terms, ranging from more moderate adjustments in North American and the North Sea to more pronounced measures in Venezuela and Russia. As a result, this could lead to reduced investment by the major western oil companies, which comes at a time when development projects are becoming more complex and remote. Moreover, an increasing proportion of the National Oil Company’s cash flow is being used to fund political and social programs, and away from exploration and development spending, all of which could lead to lower-than-expected future production, as evidenced in Mexico.
• Accordingly, we continue to believe supply constraints and limited spare capacity will persist, given natural field decline rates, normalized demand growth, and the significant geopolitical risk in numerous major producing regions. As a result, we expect prices to average in the area of $65.00 through 2010, with an anticipated trading range of $55.00-$75.00 (which is well above consensus). The upper-end of this range is where we would anticipate some demand destruction; while the lower end is a price we believe OPEC is willing and capable of defending prices.
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