发帖
雷达卡
Asia Refining Sector
SECTOR REVIEW
Building up to a perfect storm
We believe we are on the cusp of accelerated supply growth: US demand
is slowing, and Asian demand one-offs and capacity outages should ease
into 2H08. We see sharply lower spreads over the next 12 months. In this
report, we look in detail at gasoline and diesel supply-demand balances.
In our view, gasoline has greater pain, but diesel has also peaked.
■
Tight got tighter in 1Q08. Refining margins rescaled all-time highs, driven
by diesel margins. Limited capacity additions and concentrated outages in
1H08, coupled with above-average diesel demand from China and India,
tightened balances.
■
Supply looms, outages recede. Our quarterly analysis of supply suggests
that four out of six quarters to end-2009 have strong supply growth. Capacity
outages are expected to recede into 2H08. On a full-year basis, we expect
capacity to grow 1.5 mmbd in 2008 and 2.3 mmbd in 2009. Capacity beyond
that might be delayed, but the next 12-15 months are likely to be tough.
■
Demand one-offs in Asia; the US remains weak. Strong Asian demand
growth itself is not surprising, but the acceleration in the face of slower
economic growth is. Our analysis suggests that one-off factors – inventory
stocking in China and power shortages in India – have driven above-average
growth year to date. Heading into 2009, the risk of potential substitution of oil
demand by gas is not appreciated by the market.
■
Refining margins will likely fall; we would advise investors to avoid
Asian refiners. We are downgrading the refining sector to UNDERWEIGHT
from Market Weight – Formosa Petrochemicals and Reliance Industries are
among the most expensive refiners in the world. Korean/Thai refiners have
corrected sharply this year; asset values might limit downside in the short
term, but a deepening of the down cycle will increase downside risks.
212096.pdf
(735.38 KB, 需要: 5 个论坛币)
京公网安备 11010802022788号
