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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月北美石油开采行业研究报告
【作者】：Canaccord Adams证券
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：135
【目录或简介】：
Positioning for the up cycle
With the service sector up 75% since March, early gains have been made, but we think
we are still at the front end of a cyclical recovery in a sector that has seen trough-topeak
performance in the two most recent cycles of 200% (1998-2001) and 486% (2002-
2008). Clearly the recovery will not be without significant pullbacks (history of 25-30%
early cycle corrections), so timing, stock selection and stops will be key, but we
recommend being structurally long.
Oil and natural gas prices have shown significant recovery, but both oil and gas
physical supply/demand balances are still out of whack. The market is clearly focused
on economic growth trends and outer-year implications. Positive global economic
indicators and a weaker US dollar are bolstering oil, while steepening North American
conventional gas production declines are likely to intersect a demand recovery by mid-
2010, driving gas prices higher.
The North American market is poised for a quicker rebound than international
markets, already up 25% from bottom as operators are increasing activity with the
rebound in commodity prices and much lower service costs.
Many argue the North American cycle will be different this time, with incremental
activity exclusively focused on unconventional completion intensive plays, and some
argue for the return of conventional plays as ~46% of production comes from US
operators that don’t have the benefit of unconventional acreage. We take the middle
ground, but prefer to err on the side of much greater spending on unconventional
completions.
Our recommendations have a North American well completion bias, as we think a now
over-served competitive market will tighten much faster than other geomarkets and
services. International oil exposure is also clearly an important part of the portfolio, but
international upturns typically lag the US by 12 months.
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