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Key messages
Whilst we are confident in the outlook for global capex, we prefer to focus our
attention on the themes that offer superior visibility and momentum. We believe
these to be ultra-deepwater and rig construction services (within exploration) and
oil sands, deepwater/ultra-deepwater SURF, onshore LNG, refining (within E&C).
This monthly also includes a unique bottom up contract analysis of each
company’s exposure to cost plus and lump sum over time.
Top picks
Amec (PT, 900p): Management restructuring around oil service activities, leaving
it well exposed to oil sands should drive sector-leading earnings growth among its
E&C peers.
Lamprell (PT, 460p): Sector leading exposure to rig construction services and top
growth region, Middle East. As it expands its capacity and direct quayside access
across 2008/09, we believe this could place significant upside pressure to LAM’s
top-line growth.
Technip (PT, E65): Technip has expanded heavily across a number of themes and
countries over the last five years. During this process, it readily took on lump sum
contract strategies regardless of the strength of its execution potential. This is
evident in the company’s poor margin performance which continues to plague its
onshore division despite what appears to be successful implementation of lump
sum within SURF. We believe management’s open intention to only deal on lump
sum where the potential to execute well is high, places upside risk on margins
particularly within onshore (catalyst: May 15th Q1 result).
Seadrill (PT, NOK 160): Sector leading market share in ultra-deepwater drilling.
Aggregate DCF suggests significant upside to current share price. On time
newbuild delivery this year along with signature of their last un-contracted
deepwater rig will be key positive catalysts (catalyst: May 30th Q1 result).
Macro trends and changes
Our recent in depth contract analysis in conjunction with Pegasus Global, shows
that at the industry level, the mix of lump sum vs. cost plus is now equally split vs.
an overweighting in lump sum five years ago. External and regional influences
inevitably mean that lump sum contracting will remain (particularly with the NOCs).
Still, it is clear that the oil services, on aggregate, have succeeded in passing more
risk onto the client in the context of cost plus contracting.
Table of Contents
Re-positioning the ‘risk pendulum’ ............................................................ 3
Outlook: identifying the optimal contract strategy ....................................................................3
Performance & valuation............................................................................. 5
The companies ............................................................................................. 8
Company drivers, catalysts and risks ........................................................................................8
Company targets and outlook .................................................................................................12
The companies compared ......................................................................... 13
Contract synopsis....................................................................................... 16
Asset Overview .......................................................................................... 28
EPS & DCF sensitivity to company’s largest contracts .......................... 39
Global oil service spectrum by contract type.......................................... 49
Appendix A: Financial calendar ................................................................ 54
Appendix B: Global appetite for Lump sum / Cost plus contracts ....... 55
Appendix C: List of countries/NOCs that have a default lump sum
strategy ....................................................................................................... 56
221777.pdf
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