瑞士信贷--美国石油勘探和生产行业研究报告2008年5月

是 否 +2 论坛币

k人 参与回答

经管之家送您一份

应届毕业生专属福利!

求职就业群

赵安豆老师微信：zhaoandou666

经管之家联合CDA

送您一个全额奖学金名额~ !

立即领取

感谢您参与论坛问题回答

经管之家送您两个论坛币！

+2 论坛币

<p>E&P Sector Book (2008)<br/>SECTOR REVIEW<br/>A Comprehensive Review of the E&Ps in 2007<br/>■<br/>E&P Stocks Outperform in 2007: E&P shares gained 26% on average in 2007<br/>(vs. +4% for the S&P 500), a sharp improvement from the 2% average loss in<br/>2006 (vs. +14% for the S&P 500). The strong share performance was supported<br/>by margin expansion (higher commodity prices were only partially offset by rising<br/>costs) along with robust reserve and production growth. Unit reserve valuations<br/>averaged $3.14 per Mcfe, down 2% compared with $3.21 per Mcfe in 2006.<br/>Meanwhile, on EV-to-EBITDA, valuations held flat in 2007 (vs. 2006) at 6.3x.<br/>With the group up 30% YTD on rising commodity prices, we estimate the E&Ps<br/>are currently trading at $3.98 per Mcfe on 2007 reserves and 5.3x on 2008<br/>EBITDA (on Strip prices).<br/>■<br/>Rig Additions Slow in 2007 Given Improved Efficiency: During 2007, the<br/>total U.S. rig count rose 7% on average (to 1,768 rigs), well below the 19% rig<br/>count increase seen in 2006. Despite a slower pace of rig additions, U.S. gas<br/>production growth was actually stronger in 2007 (+3.7% yr/yr in 2007 vs. +3.0%<br/>yr/yr in 2006) as companies benefited from improved rig efficiency (e.g. fit-forpurpose<br/>new build land rigs), which reduced drilling times in unconventional gas<br/>plays by about one-third. Also, improved horizontal completion processes have<br/>led to rising reserves and production per well (particularly in shale plays).<br/>■<br/>Drill Bit F&D Costs (Ex-Revisions) Rise 8% to $3.05 per Mcfe: Worldwide<br/>organic F&D costs (ex revisions) for the E&Ps rose 8% yr/yr to $3.05 per Mcfe<br/>marking the ninth consecutive increase since 1999. However, it appears F&D<br/>cost inflation is starting to ease, with drill-bit F&D cost inflation of 8% in 2007,<br/>below the yr/yr increases of 18% in 2006, 40% in 2005 and 11% in 2004. When<br/>including reserve revisions, drill-bit F&D averaged $2.42 per Mcfe (-16% yr/yr).<br/>■<br/>Organic Reserve Replacement Soars in 2007: Given high reinvestment rates<br/>and moderating F&D costs, median reserve replacement through the drill-bit rose<br/>to a record high 226% in 2007 (vs. 175% in 2006). When excluding reserve<br/>revisions, organic reserve replacement totaled 190% in 2007 (vs. 179% in 2006).<br/>■<br/>All-In F&D Costs Fall to $2.80 per Mcfe In 2007: On an all-in basis (including<br/>acquisitions and revisions), worldwide F&D costs fell 9% yr/yr to $2.80 per Mcfe<br/>marking the first year-over-year decline for this metric since 2002. In North<br/>America, all-in F&D costs averaged $2.79 per Mcfe (-12% yr/yr). Positive reserve<br/>revisions have helped improve all-in F&D metrics, with reserve revisions (both<br/>performance and price-related) measuring +2% of total reserves in 2007 versus -<br/>2% in 2006, -1% in 2005 and -1% in 2004.</p><p>■ Drill-Bit Capex Budget Rose 36% in 2007: Organic spending rose 36% yr/yr in 2007 as<br/>producers steadily accelerated drilling activity over the course of the year amid pressure to<br/>achieve stated growth targets (initial 2007 budgets were indicated up just 16%). Budget<br/>increases will likely be a recurring theme in 2008 given the significant uptick in oil and gas<br/>prices and investors’ continued preference for growth. Initial 2008 capex budgets were up<br/>a median 8% vs. 2007 levels, but are now up 21% yr/yr (as of Q108 earnings season) and<br/>we expect ultimate drill-bit spending will ultimately rise by 25%+ yr/yr.<br/>■ Producer Reinvestment Boom Continues: The E&P’s spent a median 115% of cash flow<br/>in 2007 (vs. 122% in 2006) as internal cash flow fell short of funding growth-seeking capex<br/>budgets. Average E&P volume growth rates came in at about 10% last year and look on<br/>track to be up 12%+ in 2008. Producers mainly relied on the external capital markets to<br/>help finance the spending gap, while also pursuing asset sales and other asset<br/>monetization strategies (MLP, VPP). At current 2008 budgets, the median reinvestment<br/>rate measures ~112% (under $90 oil/$8 gas price assumptions); however, given the steady<br/>escalation in both oil and gas prices and an undiminished appetite for growth, we think<br/>budgets will be raised in 2008 (similar to last year) leading to similar reinvestment rates as<br/>in 2007. While the overall capital markets have tightened, access to capital has not been a<br/>limitation for the E&P’s with many producers having completed equity/debt transactions<br/>year-to-date.<br/>■ 2008 Could Post Even Stronger Growth: Following robust 3.7% yr/yr (+2.1 Bcf/d) gas<br/>growth in 2007, we think 2008 could post even stronger growth as independent producers<br/>(which are over two-thirds of the U.S. market) continue to target big growth rates (10%+),<br/>which we think could be revised higher (along with higher budgets). The latest figures from<br/>EIA-914 survey data (Feb’08) shows gas growth kicking off the year at an extremely rapid<br/>rate, with growth running a shocking 5.8 Bcf/d yr/yr (+10.5% yr/yr). We expect these rates<br/>to fall some given tougher yr/yr comps for this coming summer and considering Jan/Feb07<br/>production was lower due to winter weather disruptions. Nonetheless, we still see 2008<br/>growth comfortably surpassing 2007 levels and see an upward bias to our full-year 2008<br/>forecast of a 2.9 Bcf/d yr/yr (+5.0%) increase in U.S. gas volumes (onshore +2.6 Bcf/d,<br/>offshore +0.3 Bcf/d).<br/>■ Overall Gas Market Should Loosen: While supply/demand balances tightened over the<br/>2007-2008 winter season, we think accelerating supply growth will overwhelm year-overyear<br/>declines in LNG/Canada imports and potential demand increases. Specifically, we<br/>currently see the U.S. gas market as 0.8 Bcf/d looser, which assumes the following yr/yr<br/>increases/decreases: onshore supply +2.6 Bcf/d, offshore supply +0.3 Bcf/d, LNG imports -<br/>0.7 Bcf/d , Canada imports -0.9 Bcf/d and Demand +0.5 Bcf/d (given a tough summer<br/>demand comparison and better nuke and hydro expectations). Likewise, storage<br/>inventories may be low now, but will likely fill quickly with storage feasibly approaching 3.3-<br/>3.4 Tcf by October-end (barring extreme summer weather), giving the market greater<br/>comfort.<br/>■ Costs Stabilize in 2007: Following steep cost increases in 2005 and 2006, 2007<br/>witnessed moderating cost inflation (for both F&D and operating costs) as drilling costs<br/>subsided due to excess rig and service capacity and producers benefited from improved<br/>drilling/operating efficiencies. Specifically, the total cost structure for the E&P group rose<br/>10% yr/yr (vs. 16% and 21% yr/yr increases in 2005 and 2006). Total cash costs rose 6%<br/>yr/yr in 2007 (vs. 17% yr/yr increases in 2005 and 2006). Meanwhile drill-bit F&D costs (exrevisions)<br/>rose 8% in 2007, below the yr/yr increases of 18% in 2006 and 40% in 2005.<br/>Costs have remained relatively stable into 2008, but could rise later in the year on higher<br/>rig demand (given expected budget increases) and already sharply rising steel prices (for<br/>tubulars). Nevertheless, we think F&D costs will not rise much in 2008 due to continued<br/>improvements in drilling efficiency (unconventional gas) and typical time lag for increased<br/>service costs to filter through.</p><p></p><p> 213279.pdf (984.42 KB, 需要: 10 个论坛币)

2008-5-18 11:12:00 上传

瑞士信贷--美国石油勘探和生产行业研究报告2008年5月
需要: 10 个论坛币  [购买]

<br/></p><p></p>

扫码加我 拉你入群

请注明：姓名-公司-职位

以便审核进群资格，未注明则拒绝

分享0 收藏0 回帖

关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 石油勘探 瑞士信贷 行业研究 partially 美国石油 研究报告 average reserve

好材料，我下了，认真研究