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Investors’ investment decisions are
dominated by their view of market
direction
However, some companies have better
prospects than others
Initiating coverage of Aberdeen AM
(Overweight, TP 220p), Schroders
(Overweight, TP 1,550p), F&C AM
(Underweight, TP 150p), Henderson
(Neutral, TP 155p), INVESCO (Neutral,
TP 610p) and New Star (Neutral, TP 410p)
With their gearing into the market value of assets under
management and their high betas, fund management
company stocks traditionally offer equity investors the
opportunity to magnify the expected long run gains in
market indices. Moreover, in today’s turbulent conditions,
the fund management segment of the wider Financials sector
can be regarded as more defensive than banks and insurance
companies: their clients’ funds, not their balance sheets, bear
any market-related losses (although their reputation, and
future income, may suffer indirectly). The share buy-backs
and returns of capital still going on in this segment
differentiate it from the more capital-intensive financial
stocks and show management’s confidence in prospects –
but we are not sure that the stock market is as inclined now
as it once was to reward the ‘efficient balance sheet’.
However, stock selection is important. We think the prime
criterion should be that the fund management company is
achieving net inflows of funds, which in turn will generate
revenue growth. Some companies are not like this, relying on
market appreciation for growth. However, a takeover premium
occasionally rescues the stock prices of the not-so-good.
Our target prices are driven by our preferred comparison
yardstick of EV/net revenue. We assign premiums or discounts
to the sector average ratio based on our expectations for
superior or inferior funds and earnings growth. To this we add
dividend return to obtain a potential total return over 12 months,
which drives our ratings.
目录
Issues for investors in fund
management stocks 3
Timing of investment 3
‘Equity markets should rise in the medium term’ 3
‘Real’ growth of funds is our main criterion 4
Investment performance and distribution 4
Lower risk agency businesses 4
Adapting to change 5
Healthy margins a surprise? 5
Consolidation to the rescue 5
Growth and valuation 7
Real growth of funds under management helps 7
Balance sheet efficiency
rewarded? 11
Various capital structures 11
The ‘efficient balance sheet’ 12
Differing behaviour 13
Reward for risk? 14
Have share prices noticed? 15
Company section 17
Aberdeen AM 18
F&C AM 23
Henderson Group 28
INVESCO 34
New Star AM 39
Schroders 44
Disclosure appendix 51
Disclaimer 55
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