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Nanotechnology 2.0
SECTOR REVIEW
Evolving Nano Trends in Technology
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Nanotechnology 1.0—living through the beta woes. The concept of
nanotechnology emerged on Wall Street in 2002-03 as an attempt to
rekindle even a modicum of interest in the technology sector following the
Internet, Y-2K, and telecom bubbles of 2000-01. Overnight, buzz words like
“bucky balls,” “quantum dots,” and “nanotubes” began to dominate the
technology landscape, and investors looked for anything “nano” to place in
their portfolios even without fully understanding the concept itself. Why
bother? It was the next new new thing and that was good enough. On April
1, 2004, Merrill Lynch introduced a Nanotech Index, and over the next three
months that index declined by 9% while the Nasdaq remained flat. The
index significantly underperformed the market and was discontinued on
December 21, 2007, having lost 40%. Over the same period, the Nasdaq
appreciated by 34%.
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Nanotechnology 2.0—working the bugs out. We attempt to take a fresh look
at nanotechnology five years after it first entered into the lexicon of
technology investing. We have grouped nanotechnology investment
opportunities into four categories: (1) enablers, (2) producers, (3) product
innovators, and (4) roadmap extenders. Within the application “buckets,” we
have further segmented our analysis into technology, healthcare & life
sciences, and general industrial segments. While our conclusion supports a
view that we have held since 2002—within electronics, semiconductors and
storage will remain into the future the most important verticals for
nanotechnology—we would highlight that alternative energy, specifically
solar cells and next-generation batteries, could be the next significant
market for nanotechnology applications.
Continued on next page . . .
How to invest in nanotechnology. When answering the question of how to invest in
nanotechnology, it is first appropriate to answer the question of why a technology that
holds so much promise has had such a long incubation period from “lab to fab.” There
has clearly been an appetite for nanotechnology research. In 2007 we estimate $13.6
billion was spent on nanotechnology R&D—a 15% year-over-year increase and a
four-year CAGR of 18%. Lab to fab transitions have been hindered by two issues:
(1) for enablers it has been difficult to find capital-intensive verticals outside of
semiconductors and storage; (2) for producers it has been difficult to find end products
that can support significant increases in BoM (bill of material) costs. We like capitalintensive
industries and end markets that have the means and the will to pay for
innovation. In our opinion, we believe that along with semiconductors and storage,
solar and next-generation batteries could emerge as the next new verticals for
nanotechnology investing in electronics.
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Interesting investment opportunities. We have outlined 109 companies—25 public, 84
private—all of which are leveraged to emerging trends in nanotechnology. The more
interesting prospects appear to be still predominantly private, including Nanosolar in
solar cells, Molecular Imprints in nanoimprint lithography, Nanosys in nanowire and
quantum dot-based devices, or Nantero in next-generation memory devices. The
publicly traded VC fund Harris & Harris provides public investors with access to some
of these and other promising private nanotechnology start-ups. Among public
nanotechnology-focused companies, our list of names to watch includes Valence
Technology in next-generation batteries, Nanophase Technologies in nanomaterial
production, and NVE Corporation in “spintronics”-based devices.
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Defining nanotechnology. Nanotechnology is an umbrella term describing a field of
applied science related to the control and manipulation of matter and the fabrication of
devices on an atomic scale, generally 100 nanometers or smaller. Enabling systems
for nanotechnology include atomic force microscopes (AFMs), scanning tunneling
microscopes (STMs), electron beam lithography, and molecular beam epitaxy to name
just a few. Despite the promise nanotechnology has exhibited in the lab, commercial
applications to date have been limited. Within electronics, semiconductors and hard
disk drive fabrication remain the most important verticals for nanotechnology
applications. Within healthcare, drug delivery and therapeutics applications are
promising, albeit somewhat beyond the scope of this report. In general industrial
applications, automotive and construction materials represent interesting opportunities.
Table of Contents
Perspectives on Market Size 4
Understanding Nanotechnology 5
Definition 5
Materials 7
Tools and Instruments 35
Nanotechnology Market Dynamics 39
End Market Segmentation 39
Overview of Selected End Markets 40
Supply-Side Trends 56
Framework for Analyzing Nanotechnology Companies 59
Investing in Nanotechnology 63
The Case for Investing in Nanotechnology 63
Practical Limitations 63
Alternatives for a Public Equity Investor 64
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