瑞士信贷：美国地产行业研究报告2009年1月

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Monthly Survey of Real Estate
Agents
CHANNEL CHECK
Buyers Wait for Better News than Just Lower
Rates
■
Better affordability catches attention of buyers, but most still hesitant.
Our Monthly Survey of Real Estate Agents in December saw increased
interest from buyers as a result of the sharp decline in mortgage rates
(averaged 5.3% in December, down from 6.1% in November) and continued
declines in home prices. The main change relative to November was an
improvement in buyer traffic, although this appeared to be a) the result of
lowered expectations among agents as December is typically a month of
modest traffic (we have historically seen agents indicate increased traffic in
December relative to November compared with their expectations) and b)
continued interest in foreclosures (at the expense of new homes and nonforeclosure
existing homes).
■
Overall trend of weakness in late cycle markets continues with better
trends in markets that slowed in ’05. Our traffic index increased by 5.5
points to 25.3 from 19.8 in November, although four relatively small markets
accounted for nearly half of the overall difference. Among other markets, the
clear theme was that those markets with the most significant change in
affordability (i.e. the greatest price declines since changes in mortgage rates
are rather consistent across the country) were the markets experiencing the
best trends in traffic (all but one of the markets with traffic indices above 35
were in California, Florida, or Nevada). However, traffic and sales are
separate issues, as buyers generally lacked the nerve to make a purchase
while others gravitated to foreclosed homes.
■
Price index falls to all time low for the survey, reflecting buyer
hesitancy and influence of foreclosures. Our price index fell to 13.3 in
December, down from 15.3 in November. No market had a price index
above 22, indicating consistent downward pressure in nearly all markets.
Not surprisingly, those markets with better traffic also saw agents noting
continued sequential declines in home prices, as the key driver of buyer
traffic continues to be affordability.

Table of Contents
Overview of Results………………………………..…..3
Survey Methodology…………………………………...5
Top 20 Housing Markets
Atlanta, Georgia 7
Austin, Texas 8
Charlotte, North Carolina 9
Chicago, Illinois 10
Dallas, Texas 11
Denver, Colorado 12
Fort Myers, Florida 13
Houston, Texas 14
Jacksonville, Florida 15
Las Vegas, Nevada 16
Los Angeles, California 17
Miami, Florida 18
Minneapolis, Minnesota 19
New York-Northern New Jersey 20
Orlando, Florida 21
Phoenix, Arizona 22
Riverside-San Bernardino [Inland Empire], California 23
Seattle, Washington 24
Tampa, Florida 25
Washington, D.C. 26
Additional Key Housing Markets…………………… 27
Baltimore, Maryland 28
Boston, Massachusetts 29
Charleston, South Carolina 30
Cincinnati, Ohio 31
Columbus, Ohio 32
Detroit, Michigan 33
Nashville, Tennessee 34
Philadelphia-Southern New Jersey 35
Port St. Lucie, Florida 36
Portland, Oregon 37
Raleigh, North Carolina 38
Richmond, Virginia 39
Sacramento, California 40
San Antonio, Texas 41
San Diego, California 42
San Francisco, California 43
Sarasota, Florida 44
Tucson, Arizona 45
Virginia Beach, Virginia 46
Wilmington, North Carolina 47
Historical Survey Trends by Market……………… 48

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