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Asia Power/Utilities
Meter reading June 2008
Michael Tong, CFA
Research Analyst
(852) 2203 6167
michael.tong@db.com
Eric Cheng, CFA
Research Analyst
(852) 2203 6202
eric-ct.cheng@db.com
DB Asia Utility Monthly
The DB Asia Utility Monthly reviews all of the local newsflow, summarises all of
the recent sector research from Deutsche Bank and contains detailed share price
performance and sector comps.
Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from
local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies.
Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should
be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research is available to customers of
DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access this IR at http://gm.db.com, or call 1-877-208-6300 to
request that a copy of the IR be sent to them.
DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1
Industry Strategy
Top picks
Datang Int'l Power (0991.HK),HKD5.19 Buy
Beijing Enterprises (0392.HK),HKD27.00 Buy
NTPC Limited (NTPC.BO),INR157.30 Buy
PGN (PGAS.JK),IDR13,500.00 Buy
Electricity Generating (EGCOf.BK),THB80.00 Buy
Companies featured
Datang Int'l Power (0991.HK),HKD5.19 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
P/E (x) 20.6 21.2 13.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.6 7.9 6.0
Price/book (x) 3.1 2.0 1.8
Beijing Enterprises (0392.HK),HKD27.00 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
P/E (x) 25.8 16.7 13.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.4 6.6 5.3
Price/book (x) 1.6 1.1 1.1
NTPC Limited (NTPC.BO),INR157.30 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
P/E (x) 15.5 17.3 16.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.4 12.1 13.0
Price/book (x) 2.5 2.5 2.3
PGN (PGAS.JK),IDR13,500.00 Buy
2006A 2007E 2008E
P/E (x) 30.0 38.8 18.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 19.7 17.9 10.1
Price/book (x) 9.44 9.76 7.11
Electricity Generating (EGCOf.BK),THB80.00 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
P/E (x) 8.0 5.9 7.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.6 3.0 2.7
Price/book (x) 1.5 0.9 0.9
Global Markets Research Company
Monthly focus – tariff hike in the region
Rising electricity prices have been a global trend in 2007-08 with the prices of
crude oil, gas and coal surging. This month, we review recent tariff hikes
announced by mainland China, Malaysia and Taiwan in response to mounting fuel
cost pressure on their power companies. The tariff hikes, however, are still
insufficient to fully absorb the fuel cost increase over the years. A declining margin
is a common feature of power utilities without an automatic pass-through
mechanism, e.g. in mainland China, Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan.
Recent DB sector research
We have upgraded Tenaga to Buy from Hold after the government announced a
24% tariff hike. We reiterate Buy on Beijing Enterprises as we believe the
company offers a steady growth outlook from rising gas sales in Beijing and wellprotected
margins due to an automatic fuel cost pass-through mechanism. We
initiate coverage of Thai Tap Water with a Buy as we like its 1) cheap valuation, 2)
good earnings growth in 08-09F, and 3) dominant position in the tap water market.
News from the local press
Over the past month, China and Malaysia have announced tariff hikes, which
surprised the market as they are earlier than consensus expectation. Key
personnel changes reported at China IPPs may indicate possible corporate
reshuffling at some point. Indian power companies are in the progress of new
project bids. Several cross-board investments have been made including
investment in China’s water and power spaces by YTL Power and Kepco,
respectively.
Share price movement and valuations
Tenaga has been the best performer on both an absolute and relative basis in the
past 1M following the government’s decision to hike tariffs. CLP ranks second
which is likely due to progress achieved in its proposed LNG project in HK after
signing a gas supply contract with BG. Its strong performance could also be
explained by its defensiveness in a still volatile market (CKI and HKE also
outperformed). China IPPs -- particularly the two quality names, Datang and CR
Power -- are among the top performers due to the market expectation of likely
tariff hikes. Meralco’s underperformance continued in both absolute and relative
terms due to tariff outlook uncertainties in a hostile regulatory regime.
Table of Contents
Focus: tariff hike in the region.......................................................... 3
Mainland China – only 5% from 1 July amid inflation concern..................................................3
Malaysia - 24% tariff hike with re-priced gas ............................................................................4
Taiwan – 25% tariff hike in two stages .....................................................................................4
DB research ........................................................................................ 6
Summary..................................................................................................................................6
Beijing Enterprises (Buy, TP: HK$38.00): Riding China's booming natural gas market .............6
YTL Power (Hold, TP: RM2.22): 9mFY08 results were 5% ahead ............................................7
Kepco (Hold, TP: KRW34,000): Imminent tariff hike but we maintain Hold ..............................7
Glow Energy (Hold, TP: THB 32.50): Profit targets cut to reflect higher coal costs ..................8
Manila Electric Company (Buy, TP: P87.00): Mexican stand-off................................................9
Thai Tap Water Supply PCL (Buy, TP: THB4.80): Largest Thai private tap water provider;
Initiate with Buy ........................................................................................................................9
Thai Tap Water Supply PCL (Buy, TP: THB4.80): Interest costs to fall from Bt3bn debt
payment.................................................................................................................................10
YTL Power (Hold, TP: RM2.22): 30% windfall tax on excess profit ........................................11
Tenaga (Hold, TP: RM7.10): Net tariff hike; positive impact on Tenaga..................................11
Tenaga (Buy, TP: RM10.80): Overhang addressed; upgrade to Buy .......................................12
YTL Power (Hold, TP: RM2.22): Windfall tax impact higher than expected ............................12
Tenaga (Buy, TP: RM10.80): Annual window to review tariff..................................................13
Thai Tap Water Supply PCL (Buy, TP: THB5.05): 2009-10F earnings upgraded on rising
inflation ..................................................................................................................................13
Tariff hike announced: 3 months ahead of our expectation ....................................................14
Recent newsflow ............................................................................. 15
China......................................................................................................................................15
Hong Kong ..............................................................................................................................16
Malaysia.................................................................................................................................16
Philippines..............................................................................................................................16
India .......................................................................................................................................17
Korea......................................................................................................................................18
Indonesia................................................................................................................................18
Share price performance and sector comps ................................. 19
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