发帖
雷达卡
12 December 2008
Electric Utilities & Power
DB Utilities and Power Weekly
John Kiani
Research Analyst
(+1) 832 239-3307
john.kiani@db.com
Raluca Dalea
Research Associate
(+1) 832 239-3122
raluca.dalea@db.com
Naaz Khumawala
Research Associate
(+1) 832 239-3172
naaz.khumawala@db.com
Utilities and power sector stages modest rise
The UTY increased 8.64 points or 2.3% to 388.71 for the week ending December
11th. However, the UTY underperformed the S&P 500 by 1.1%. Particularly
notable was DYN's price decline related to expectations of the company's
guidance for its '09 adjusted EBITDA. In addition, we initiated coverage of CPN
today with a Hold rating, where the overhang of the economic recession and wind
issues in TX keep us on the sidelines with this stock.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
Industry Update
Top picks
American Electric Power Co (AEP.N),USD29.97 Buy
Allegheny Energy (AYE.N),USD31.76 Buy
CMS Energy Corp. (CMS.N),USD9.82 Buy
Exelon (EXC.N),USD54.54 Buy
PPL Corp. (PPL.N),USD29.86 Buy
Companies featured
AES Corporation (AES.N),USD7.12 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS (USD) 1.02 1.03 1.15
P/E (x) 20.7 6.9 6.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.2 5.5 5.3
American Electric Power Co (AEP.N),USD29.97Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS (USD) 3.00 3.22 3.28
P/E (x) 15.5 9.3 9.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.5 7.0 6.9
Allegheny Energy (AYE.N),USD31.76 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS (USD) 2.24 2.26 3.01
P/E (x) 23.7 14.0 10.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.8 7.9 6.8
CMS Energy Corp. (CMS.N),USD9.82 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS (USD) 0.82 1.20 1.26
P/E (x) 20.9 8.2 7.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 18.4 6.3 6.2
Dynegy Inc. (DYN.N),USD1.80 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS (USD) 0.10 0.05 0.05
P/E (x) 87.9 36.7 37.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 12.7 7.4 7.2
Exelon (EXC.N),USD54.54 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS (USD) 4.33 4.17 4.12
P/E (x) 16.9 13.1 13.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.6 7.0 6.8
FirstEnergy (FE.N),USD54.67 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS (USD) 4.23 4.31 5.20
P/E (x) 15.5 12.7 10.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.0 6.7 5.9
NRG Energy (NRG.N),USD23.10 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS (USD) 1.84 2.82 2.61
P/E (x) 21.3 8.2 8.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.0 4.7 4.9
PG&E (PCG.N),USD36.41 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS (USD) 2.78 2.95 3.20
P/E (x) 16.9 12.3 11.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.8 6.2 5.2
PPL Corp. (PPL.N),USD29.86 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS (USD) 2.59 2.01 1.77
P/E (x) 17.5 14.9 16.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.6 4.6 4.6
Global Markets Research Company
Commodities declined during the last week
Natural gas prices declined both during the past week and month to date. After a
modest increase, coal prices are on a decline both for the past week and month to
date. 2009 NYMEX natural gas declined $0.50/MMBtu to $6.21/MMBtu and CAPP
coal declined $1.71/ton to $65.79/ton this week. In addition, PJM 2009 on peak
market heat rates increased by 3% to 8,906 Btus/KWh, while NI Hub 2009 on
peak market heat rates increased 2% to 7,260 Btus/KWh.
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