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Guangzhou Shipyard Intl (317)
abc
Machinery
27 June 2008
Investment summary
Capacity constraints of the existing shipyard point to lower
revenue growth compared to its peers
Earnings growth not likely to replicate the surge in 2007, due to
slower revenue expansion and smaller foreign exchange gains
The shares appear fairly valued at current level, based on the
business outlook
Initiate coverage 2 Well positioned companies that are exposed
to growing demand for equipment for deep
Underweight (V) and
sea oil equipment and seaborne oil trade
HKD19.50/RMB23.40 target
We initiate coverage of Guangzhou Shipyard 3 Low cost producers (i.e., typically Chinese
International Company Limited (Ticker: H-share: shipbuilders)
317 HK; A-share: 600685 CH) with an
4 Large shipyards with a quality order book
Underweight (V) rating and a target price of
and strong balance sheets to weather through
HKD19.50 for the H-shares and an Underweight the credit turmoil
(V) rating and a target price of RMB23.40 for the
A-shares. Our target prices for the H-shares and 5 Companies with attractive valuations at
A-shares imply potential total loss of 4.0% and this stage of the cycle
13.3% (including 2008e DPS of RMB0.50) from
GSI is neither a niche player nor a low-cost
the respective 26 June closing prices.
producer and tight shipyard capacity limits
In conjunction with this report, we have published product expansion.
a shipbuilding thematic report titled, “Strategies
Leading builder of oil product tankers
for success – Low cost or high value-added”,
GSI currently ranks number four (after three
where we discuss our top five ‘golden rules’ for
South Korean shipyards) globally in terms of
selecting the best shipbuilders in the current
order book for oil product tankers and owns 10%
market environment. We think investors should
of the global backlog. Given that the mandatory
focus on the following:
phase-out of single-hull or aged tankers by 2015
1 Niche players that build sophisticated high- or earlier and potential 5% y-o-y growth in
value ships (e.g., oil development and refined product trade, we expect the orders for oil
production equipment), which have stronger product tankers to remain more robust than orders
entry barriers and pricing power for dry bulk carriers and containerships. New
orders for Ro-Ro passenger vessels coul
[此贴子已经被angelboy于2008-8-14 14:33:53编辑过]
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