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理论上，债券价格与利率反向关系，与汇率正向关系。实际操作中，债券分投资评级及垃圾债券，经济不好时，风险利差扩大，从而导致无风险利率的下跌和风险资产利率上升。
今年国内债券牛市就是这样形成的，现在货币市场基金收益率较去年大幅下跌，久期较长的高评级债券，如10年期国开债今年实际利率下跌100BP，从而导致债券价格上升10%以上，再利用代持养券（今年下半年开始，去年禁止的丙类账户又可以操作了）加杠杆，债券基金收益都很靓丽。经济不好时，资金流出，汇率下跌，判断off-shore CNH，可参考IRS，NDF；由于暂时人民币为非流通货币，因此on-shore的人民币汇率与汇率关系不大。
美元债券定价主要参考prime rate, on the run treasury yield, medium term swap rate。从这开始写英文吧，介绍美元企业债用中文表达怕不准确，毕竟都是看的英文。Lots of foreign issuers swap fixed rated bonds to floating for asset liability purposes, specifically banks.Therefore, MS+premium is a conventional pricing way. T+premium is another normally used pricing guidance. Fixed income credit investors are mostly concerned with relative values as most are compensated relative to some benchmarks that the only way to out perform is to take risk aka duration, spread risk, convexity, etc. So each credits are relatively to other outstanding corporates, the only real way to see absolute value is to look at Z spread or I spread (some look at G spread) to normalize the different maturities and other different characteristics of each bond. In addition, Basel 3 required commericial banks for more liqudity asset that pushed them changing portfolio allocation to chasing the corporate fixed securities that the HTM asset classification and dropped of priority trading all drained up market liquidity, which decreased as much as 30% compared with last year, according to the report I just read from Bloomberg.
各位高人债券的策略怎样啊？我看内地券商的策略都是股债双牛，而海外投行则相对谨慎，债市波动会加大。
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