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英文版

I THE TRADE SITUATION IN 2007 ...................................................................................................................... 1
A INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................................... 1
B REAL MERCHANDISE TRADE AND OUTPUT DEVELOPMENTS IN 2007......................................... 3
C NOMINAL TRADE DEVELOPMENTS IN 2007 ............................................................................................... 5
II TRADE IN A GLOBALIZING WORLD............................................................................................................. 13
A INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................... 13
B GLOBALIZATION AND TRADE ........................................................................................................................ 15
1. Trends in globalization ................................................................................................................................... 15
2. Main drivers of globalization ..........................................................................................................................20
3. Public attitudes to globalization ..................................................................................................................... 21
C THE CAUSES OF TRADE ..................................................................................................................................... 27
1. The traditional approach: gains from specialization ...................................................................................28
2. “New” trade theory: gains from economies of scale, product variety and increased competition .......40
3. Recent developments: productivity gains ......................................................................................................53
4. Dynamic gains .................................................................................................................................................64
5. Conclusions ....................................................................................................................................................... 74
D TRADE, THE LOCATION OF PRODUCTION AND THE INDUSTRIAL
ORGANIZATION OF FIRMS ............................................................................................................................... 81
1. Falling international trade costs ..................................................................................................................... 81
2. Geographical concentration ............................................................................................................................88
3. International fragmentation of production ...................................................................................................98
4. Conclusions ..................................................................................................................................................... 118
Technical Appendix ....................................................................................................................................... 119
E DISTRIBUTIONAL CONSEQUENCES OF TRADE ....................................................................................123
1. Trade and inequality .....................................................................................................................................123
2. Trade and structural adjustment ..................................................................................................................134
3. Trade and poverty ..........................................................................................................................................139
4. Conclusions .....................................................................................................................................................144
F POLICY IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBAL INTEGRATION AND THE WTO ..........................................147
1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................147
2. Addressing trade costs and supply constraints ...........................................................................................147
3. Dealing with the social consequences of liberalization ............................................................................. 151
4. Do all countries gain from trade? The role of technology ........................................................................156
5. Conclusions .....................................................................................................................................................160
BIBLIOGRAPHY .............................................................................................................................................................163
TECHNICAL NOTES ....................................................................................................................................................175
iv
WORLD TRADE REPORT 2008
LIST OF TABLES, CHARTS AND BOXES
I THE TRADE SITUATION IN 2007
Tables
Table 1 GDP and merchandise trade by region, 2005-07 ........................................................................................... 4
Table 2 World exports of merchandise and commercial services, 2007 .................................................................... 7
Table 3 World exports of commercial services trade by major category, 2007 ......................................................... 9
Charts
Chart 1 Real GDP and trade growth of OECD countries, 2006-07 ......................................................................... 2
Chart 2 Growth in the volume of world merchandise trade and GDP, 1997-2007 .................................................. 3
Chart 3 Real merchandise trade growth by region, 2007 ............................................................................................. 5
Chart 4 Export prices of selected primary products, 2005-07 .................................................................................... 6
Chart 5 Dollar exchange rates of selected major currencies, 2001-07 ........................................................................ 7
Appendix Tables
App. Table 1 World merchandise trade by region and selected country, 2007 ....................................................... 11
App. Table 2 World exports of commercial services by region and selected country, 2007 .................................. 12
II TRADE IN A GLOBALIZING WORLD
B GLOBALIZATION AND TRADE
Tables
Table 1 Globalization waves in the 19th and 20th century ........................................................................................ 15
Table 2 Globalization chronology.................................................................................................................................22
Charts
Chart 1 Share of major exporters in world merchandise trade, 1953-2006 ............................................................. 16
Chart 2 Share of industrial countries in world manufactures exports by product group, 1955-2006 ................. 18
Chart 3 Net immigration into developed countries, 1960-2006 ...............................................................................20
Appendix Charts
App. Chart 1 Share of industrial countries in world exports by major product group, 1955-2006 ......................25
App. Chart 2 Share of developing economies in world manufactures exports by product group, 1983-2006 ....25
App. Chart 3 Selected financial flows to developing countries, 1990-2006 ............................................................26

 

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