转的Will Cheap Money Help?
It's uncertain how effective the cuts will be. Unlike those in other countries, Chinese consumers are not highly leveraged. Credit-card use is almost nonexistent, although debit cards are popular. Even most auto purchases are made in cash. Similarly, most home buyers put down more than the 20% required downpayment for mortgages, and outright defaults are rare. "The hope will be that this move will trigger more buying interest for homes, as well as support investment, both private as well as the coming wave of public projects," Standard Chartered Bank economist Stephen Green wrote in a note to clients. "But to be honest, rate policy in this environment is a marginal factor—businesses think about possible returns on investments, and households will look at house price prospects."
Whether cheaper money will induce banks to increase their loan books is an open question. Tens of thousands of Chinese manufacturers have gone out of business in recent months, leaving unpaid wages and supplier bills. Property developers are extremely cash-strapped in the face of a dramatic drop in housing turnover, and banks are cautious about extending new loans when they anticipate more defaults because of the economic slowdown.
China's economic outlook has deteriorated rapidly in recent weeks. In midsummer, only pessimists expected China's GDP growth to slow next year to 8%, a level necessary to ensure the absorption of new labor entrants into the workforce. Anything below this could—by Chinese economic standards—be considered a recession. Now economists are following one another with economic downgrades. On Oct. 31, UBS issued a growth forecast for next year of 7.5% (down from 8%). Economists believe about three percentage points of this growth will come from stimulus packages