发帖
雷达卡
BRICs auto market
The fight for future growth
Kurt Sanger, CFA
Research Analyst
(+81) 3 5156-6692
kurt.sanger@db.com
Takeshi Kitaura
Research Associate
(+81) 3 5156-6738
takeshi.kitaura@db.com
Fundamental, Industry, Thematic, Though Leading
Our Equity Research Stock Selection Committee has recognized this report as
being rich in unique investment ideas and as meeting its "FITT" (Fundamental,
Industry, Thematic, Thought leading) criteria. The BRICs markets of Brazil, Russia,
India, and China offer the brightest prospects for sustained auto volume growth in
the mid to long-term. Understanding what differentiates these markets will be
critical to success.
Deutsche Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
FITT Research
Companies featured
Nissan Motor (7201.T),¥308 Hold
Toyota Motor (7203.T),¥2,760 Hold
Honda Motor (7267.T),¥1,921 Buy
Suzuki Motor (7269.T),¥1,099 Hold
Fundamental: millions of potential new customers
Despite what should be a turbulent year in CY09, the potential for mid to long term
growth in emerging markets is intoxicating for the auto industry. Faced with
stagnant to declining demand at home, the BRICs economies of Brazil, Russia,
India, and China have come to represent the future. The macro economics are
compelling as rising incomes create millions of new customers.
Industry: looking at a short term bump on a long road
The long-term prospects remain positive for unit volume growth, with the industry
approaching 100m units around 2020 from 69m in 2007. Of the increase, nearly
60% is estimated to come from BRICs markets with only 13% from developed
markets.
Thematic: local understanding is paramount to success
Perhaps because of the catchy acronym, the markets of Brazil, Russia, India, and
China are discussed in aggregate as emerging markets. The reality is that each
market has distinct characteristics of consumer behavior, product preferences,
and government policy. Understanding these dynamics is critical in developing an
effective business strategy.
Thought leading: on the road to overcapacity, some may veer off
With demand booming over the last five-years, there has been a push to
accelerate capacity investments in BRICs. What looms is overcapacity with India
facing the worst condition. The current macro economic condition is likely to bring
plans under tighter scrutiny. While most firms remain stoic, we are likely to see
some capitulation on expansion plans. Those companies with the resources to
continue to invest through hard times will likely prevail.
Valuation and risk factors
We base our sector valuations on EV/EBITDA to better reflect relative balance
sheet strength. Global macro growth outlook, forex volatility and government
policy present both upside and downside risk to the sector.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary........................................................................... 4
Global auto outlook – migration toward growth........................................................................4
BRICs - the same in name alone ..............................................................................................4
Country details – different characters .......................................................................................5
Risks ........................................................................................................................................5
Global auto landscape....................................................................... 7
The emergence of new markets ...............................................................................................7
New consumers from a low base.............................................................................................8
Investment is happening now...................................................................................................8
Global position and local presence are not synonymous ..........................................................9
Near-term outlook looks bumpier ...........................................................................................11
Macro fundamentals ....................................................................... 13
Population trends and forecast ...............................................................................................13
A closer look at the demographics..........................................................................................13
BRICs GDP trends and projections .........................................................................................15
BRICs GDP per capita income ................................................................................................16
Comparing wealth inequality between the BRICs countries ...................................................17
Autos market fundamentals ........................................................... 19
Ownership levels – base and penetration levels .....................................................................19
Consumptions methods – finance penetration .......................................................................20
Government policy and consumption: FTA agreements.........................................................21
Government policy: fuel price and running costs....................................................................22
Government policy: auto tax structure ....................................................................................23
Brazilian market............................................................................... 24
Summary of economic factors................................................................................................24
Brazil’s top models and product trends ..................................................................................24
Key market players..................................................................................................................25
Production capacity of major auto makers..............................................................................25
Key points to capacity increase...............................................................................................26
Sales and capacity outlook......................................................................................................27
Russian market ................................................................................ 29
Summary of economic factors................................................................................................29
Russia’s top models and product trends ................................................................................29
Key market players..................................................................................................................30
Production capacity of major auto makers..............................................................................31
Key points to capacity increase:..............................................................................................31
Sales and capacity outlook......................................................................................................32
Indian market................................................................................... 34
Summary of economic factors................................................................................................34
India’s top models and product trends ...................................................................................34
Key market players..................................................................................................................35
Production capacity of major auto makers..............................................................................35
Key points to capacity increase...............................................................................................36
Sales and capacity outlook......................................................................................................37
Chinese market................................................................................ 40
Summary of economic factors................................................................................................40
China’s top models and product trends ..................................................................................40
Key market players..................................................................................................................41
Production capacity of major auto makers..............................................................................42
Key points to capacity increase...............................................................................................42
Sales and capacity outlook......................................................................................................43
Potential growth areas ............................................................................................................44
Overview of Japanese makers ....................................................... 46
The future is now ....................................................................................................................46
Toyota Motor (7203) ...............................................................................................................47
Honda Motor (7267)................................................................................................................47
Nissan Motor (7201) ...............................................................................................................47
Suzuki Motor (7269)................................................................................................................48
281525.pdf
(968 KB, 需要: 500 个论坛币)
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
变色卡
抢沙发
千斤顶
显身卡
京公网安备 11010802022788号
