发帖
雷达卡
19 December 2008
Global Automotive Review
The Year in Pictures
Gaetan Toulemonde
Research Analyst
(33) 1 4495 6668
gaetan.toulemonde@db.com
Jochen Gehrke
Research Analyst
(49) 69 910 31949
jochen.gehrke@db.com
The Year in Pictures
To remind investors of some of the events and themes that we looked at in 2008,
we have copied all our tables of the week that we included in the Autos Weekly in
2008 into this report. The tables provide a salutary reminder of some of the issues
such as currencies, productivity, market share gains and losses, new model
launches... that occupied much of our thoughts in 2008. Many of these topics will
again be key features for investors to consider in 2009.
Deutsche Bank AG/London
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
Market Strategy
Research Team
Gaetan Toulemonde
Research Analyst
(33) 1 4495 6668
gaetan.toulemonde@db.com
Jochen Gehrke
Research Analyst
(49) 69 910 31949
jochen.gehrke@db.com
Kurt Sanger, CFA
Research Analyst
(81) 3 5156 6692
kurt.sanger@db.com
Rod Lache
Research Analyst
(1) 212 250 5551
rod.lache@db.com
Srinivas Rao
Research Analyst
(91) 22 6658 4210
srini.rao@db.com
Vincent Ha, CFA
Research Analyst
(852) 2203 6247
vincent.ha@db.com
Patrick Nolan, CFA
Associate Analyst
(1) 212 250 5267
patrick.nolan@db.com
Dan Galves
Associate Analyst
(1) 212 250 3738
dan.galves@db.com
Global Markets Research Company
Season’s Greetings from the Deutsche Bank Automotive Team
On behalf of the DB Auto Team, we would like to take this opportunity to wish all
our readers an enjoyable winter break and all the very best for 2009. The last
twelve months have been the toughest in decades for the sector. And 2009 will
be another very challenging year. We would suggest to all our clients that they use
the holiday period to forget about the auto sector for two weeks and to recharge
their batteries ahead of this bumpy road.
2009 outlook: not too much to smile about
The macro environment is deteriorating fast. We expect European car demand to
drop by 12% for each of the next three quarters in Europe (Q408-Q209).
Furthermore, tighter lending, lower residual values and a higher cost of credit will
have a negative impact on mix. Lastly, product mix and pricing are also very
important drivers of profitability; especially pricing discipline, since 100% of
negative pricing falls to the bottom line. This is why we have recently cut our 2009
EPS estimates. We now expect next year's earnings to be an average of 40%
lower than in 2008e. So far, we assume 2010 will be the first year of stability, with
earnings rising mildly as the economy starts to recover. We note that such a
development would be an optimistic scenario by historical standards, as a
housing-led recession can take longer before economic growth restarts
Valuation
Our TPs are based either on a 10x 2010e PE, discounted back (a PE we apply to
mass market OEMs), or on a combined DCF in which we value the industrial
activities and the financial services businesses separately. In terms of upside risk,
there is always the possibility that OEMs can pass on incremental costs (to reduce
CO2 emissions) to customers. On the downside, in a highly competitive
environment, OEMs might have difficulty passing costs on and this could lead to
earnings estimate downgrades
We note that DB has been restricted from making any investment commentary on
Continental AG since 16 July, 2008. All mentions of Continental that appear herein
are either factual or – because this is a compilation of previous research -- reflect
the view of DB at the time of original publication (see the top of each page for
respective dates). Thus, we underscore that no mention of Continental AG herein
should be understood to represent a current DB investment view.
Table of Contents
11th January - Car sales forecasts .............................................................................................3
18th January–Currency exposure...............................................................................................4
25th January– Labor cost difference between a tire produced in Western and Eastern Europe
.................................................................................................................................................5
1st February - Core earning variable estimates for JBig3 auto assemblers (OP basis) ..............6
8th February - Reporting Season is starting in Europe ...............................................................7
15th February - Market share gain / loss analysis.......................................................................8
22nd February - IBES Estimates post FY reporting season ........................................................9
29th February - North American Capacity Utilizations ..............................................................10
7th March - EPS estimates and Recommendation tracker post FY07 results ..........................11
14th March- Trend of the European D segment market..........................................................12
20th March - Operating Profit and EPS sensitivity analysis (FY3/09e) ......................................13
28th March – Capitalization of R&D of European OEMs..........................................................14
4th April - Renault’s top line growth; Stepping on the gas.......................................................15
11th April - Headwind from currencies.....................................................................................16
18th April – Valuation of the sector today vs at previous trough in Sept 2001.........................17
25th April - Main drivers of the OP variance for JBig3 .............................................................18
2nd May - Comparison of direct labor cost per plant ...............................................................19
9th May - EPS estimates and Recommendation tracker post Q1 08 .......................................20
16th May – JBig3's main results for FY3/08-FY3/10e...............................................................21
23rd May – Market share gain/loss analysis.............................................................................22
30th May – Current EV/Sales valuation versus a decades’ range.............................................23
6th June – Raw material price development for a standard European car ...............................24
13th June – Hybrid fuel efficiency gains and costs ..................................................................25
20th June – Cost of fueling – electric vs. gasoline (US$) .........................................................26
27th June – Household spending for transportation ................................................................27
4th July – Update on selling price increases in the tire industry over the last 12 months........28
11th July – Operational gearing in the car industry ..................................................................29
18th July – Reporting season...................................................................................................30
25th July – IBES consensus estimates versus DB ...................................................................31
1st August – Price trends of some sensitive raw materials used in tires.................................32
8th August – Inventory build-up – 1H08 ...................................................................................33
14th August - EPS estimates and Recommendation tracker post 1H08 results ......................34
22nd August - Hypothetical structure of the 51% stake building .............................................35
29th August – Average CO2 emission by OEM and distance to 2012 target set by Brussels ..36
5th September – Breakdown of the world tire market .............................................................37
12th September - Market share gain/loss analysis...................................................................38
19th September – Correlation between natural rubber price and oil price ...............................39
26th September – Porsche/Volkswagen scenario analysis ......................................................40
3rd October – IBES consensus estimates vs. DBe ..................................................................41
10th October - European car demand in 2008 and 2009..........................................................42
17th October – Combined profit impact on European Auto’s FS divisions ..............................43
24th October – Magnitude of Earnings downgrade in the Auto sector....................................44
31st October – Update on car production cuts in the Auto Industry........................................45
7th November – Average US Auto recession since 1960 ........................................................46
14th November – EPS estimates and Recommendation tracker post Q308............................47
21st November – European Car market trend since 1970 .......................................................48
28th November – Japanese Autos: Cutting earnings ests & TPs for JBig3 as macro factors
bite.........................................................................................................................................49
5th December – Scrappage schemes in the Auto during the Nineties.....................................50
12th December – European sales and production estimates by quarter..................................51
18th December – BRICs auto market: the fight for future growth............................................52
283607.pdf
(1.05 MB, 需要: 500 个论坛币)
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
变色卡
抢沙发
千斤顶
显身卡
京公网安备 11010802022788号
