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2 December 2008
Turkey Idealog - Dec 08
Sun goes down; more
to go till dawn
Last month’s PT revisions for the banks
and blue-chips in our coverage lower our
12-mo bottom-up index target to 39,000.
Market response to CBT’s surprise rate
cut and other planned measures to help
the banking system remains muted in
face of broader macro worries.
Serhan Gok
Research Analyst
(90) 212 292-2854
serhan.gok@db.com
Mete Ozbek
Research Analyst
(90) 212 3190325
mete.ozbek@db.com
Deutsche Bank AG/London
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
Idealog Index vs. ISE 100
40
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60
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100
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Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Idealog Index ISE 100 (rebased)
Market synopsis
@28 November 2008 Closing m-o-m
ISE 100 (TRY) 25,715 -7.6% -2,118
ISE 100 ($) 1.65 -7.7% -0.14 pts
MSCI EM ($) 190 -10.4% -22 pts
ISE Ave. Vol. ($m) 831 -15.2%
ISE 100 monthly Hi/Lo 29,400 20,912
ISE 30 best performers
m-o-m $ perf Ave Vol
ISGYO 17% $1.5m
TCELL 16% $21.2m
PETKM 16% $6.9m
ISE 30 worst performers
m-o-m $ perf Ave Vol
TOASO -37% $3.8m
ARCLK -27% $5.3m
AKGRT -24% $3.0m
Recent rating/target price revisions
Stock (PT) Current Prev. TP chg
AKBNK.IS (TRY5.35) HOLD HOLD -14%
GARAN.IS (TRY3.50) BUY BUY -13%
HALKB.IS (TRY6.61) BUY BUY -13%
ISCTR.IS (TRY4.96) HOLD HOLD -19%
VAKBN.IS (TRY2.50) BUY BUY -11%
YKBNK.IS (TRY2.10) HOLD SELL +5%
EREGL.IS (TRY3.45) SELL HOLD -37%
TAVHL.IS (TRY4.50) HOLD BUY -66%
THYAO.IS (TRY9.00) BUY BUY +5%
Global Markets Research Company
Lowering bottom up short term index target by 9% to 29,250 after banking
sector estimate and PT revisions
Last month’s revisions to estimates and price targets of the banks and other heavy
weight stocks in our coverage lowered our 12-month bottom-up index target to
39,000 from 43,000. Macro volatility remains a major impediment to market
conviction on the estimates and price targets. If the y-t-d gap between the market
and target prices is a valid benchmark, a 25% average discount remains the
working assumption for the short-term, implying a 29,250 index target, down from
32,000 last month.
Market response to CBT’s surprise rate cut and other planned measures to
help the banking system remains muted in face of broader macro worries
Turkish equities have not yet fully priced in the recent optimism reflected in bond
yields and the TRY, which followed the CBT's surprise rate cut two weeks ago.
This is perhaps a result of the relatively limited impact on the economy with loan
and deposit rates currently standing at a distance from the policy rate. However,
the highly consistent relationship between yields and equities points to an
increasing gap in favour of the ISE-100. Now on the heels of a macro aid package,
which may contain additional CBT support to banking funding costs, such as lower
reserve requirements, longer maturities in repo funding and direct T-bonds
purchases from the banks; equities may be more responsive to additional positive
news flow -especially in the case of a good November inflation reading potentially
leading the CBT to continue with its rate cuts on a moderating inflation outlook.
The emerging signs of stress from the businesses, the prevailing uncertainty
around the potential IMF deal and weak global markets are the negatives.
Top Picks performed +15% in relative terms last month, 27% since inception;
only revision this month is Tekfen
Garanti remains our top banking pick based on the discount to peers, which we
find unjustified --although we do not expect the bank to stand out in the short term
from a results delivery standpoint. Despite a valuation based upgrade in its rating
to Hold, Yapi Kredi sits at the other end of the spectrum in our banking coverage
and remains a likely underperformer. Turkcell continues to be a top pick due to its
defensive business model, balance sheet and additional potential catalysts such as
improvement in strategic ownership and share price support attached to official
buyback intentions. Among the blue chip industrials, we expect Erdemir to be an
underperformer due to deterioration in profitability with the meltdown in steel
price & demand outlook. Among the smaller caps, we like Turkish Airlines –based
on its attractive valuation and potential fast margin response to declining oil prices.
Tekfen Holding has been removed from our Top Picks list due to the potential
delay in the SOCAR deal. See Pages 3-8 for details of our key equity calls and Top
Picks.
Table of Contents
Equity Overview ................................................................................ 3
Major developments in the past month....................................................................................3
Our key calls in the past month ................................................................................................5
Top Picks ............................................................................................ 7
Tekfen Holding downgraded from Top Picks............................................................................7
Top picks outperformed the ISE-100 by 14.8% in November...................................................7
Idealog portfolio methodology and history ...............................................................................7
Top Picks ............................................................................................ 9
Monthly Agenda .............................................................................. 16
Market Data ..................................................................................... 24
Datascan........................................................................................... 27
Key Market Aggregates................................................................... 29
Foreign Participation in ISE ............................................................ 30
Turkish Derivatives Exchange ........................................................ 32
281684.pdf
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