发帖
雷达卡
Stimulus package eases pain, can’t stop the rain
Deflation has come to China’s economy. Conservative outlook will weigh on spending.
Excess supply will not be offset by government stimulus efforts.
Renminbi depreciation looking more likely. The trade dependency ratio has surged to
66% in China. Signals appeared in late 2008 but we think depreciation will formally
take place in 2Q09.
Direct links between Taiwan and China will have little benefit to either side. Restrictions
will still hamper Chinese travellers. Direct links in shipping have already been established
informally.
Positive on 1H09 and cautious on 2H09. We expect a policy-driven rally to continue to
1H09. Oil prices may rebound and new energy stocks will be the hot spot in 1Q09.
We suggest increasing stock weighting from 40% to 50-60% in light of the
government’s aggressive policy support and we target 1,500-2,500 as the SSE’s shortto
mid-term range. We also warn investors that the double-D risk of deflation and
depreciation may lead the SSE down to 1,000-1,200 points in the long-term.
目录
Market strategy
Stimulus package eases pain, can’t stop the rain 1
Our top picks
Summary of top picks 1 3
SL Pharmaceutical (002038.SZ/002038 CH): Outlook bright on strong R&D capability 14
Tianma (002122.SZ/002122 CH): Wind power bearings the highlight of 2009 growth 1 6
Better Life (002251.SS/002251 CH): Fast-growing retail sector play 18
Baoshan Iron & Steel (600019.SS/600019 CH): Valuation attractive, long-term value play 2 0
China Southern Airlines (600029.SS/600029 CH): Benefiting from government policy 22
China Fiberglass (600176.SS/600176 CH): Rosy outlook on back of sector leadership 24
Guiguan Electric Power (600236.SS/600236 CH): Distress to end in 2009 on Yantan acquisition 26
Hualu Hengsheng (600426.SS/600426 CH): First sign of sectoral turnaround emerges 28
Sectors
Sector summary & valuation 3 0
Auto sector: 2009 looking tough 3 2
Fertilizer sector: Upcoming spring to bring new life 3 6
Petrochemicals & natural gas sector: Refiners may turn around on new pricing system 4 0
Pharmaceuticals sector: Strong rally in 4Q08; bio-agent a bright spot 4 2
Machinery sector: A few bright spots amid macro weakness 4 3
Alternative energy sector: In dire need of policy support 4 5
Coal sector: Coal sector unable to trough in 2009 due to oversupply 4 7
Steel sector: No recovery in sight 4 8
Cement sector: Fragile balance likely in 2009 4 9
Real estate sector: Picking up on back of stimulus measures 51
Power sector: Opportunities lie with restructuring 53
Airport sector: Growth mainly from domestic travel 5 5
Airline sector: Government policies offer lifeline to airline industry 5 7
China shipping sector: Bracing for hard times 5 9
Port sector: Cargo throughput growth falling 6 1
Railway sector: Declining freight, stronger pax flow, faster investment 62
Food & beverage sector: Steady demand & cost reduction are major themes 64
Retail sector: Tough times to come in 2009 6 6
Stock market
Cash calls and cash supply 6 9
Portfolio weightings 7 0
China economy
Entering winter 71
Appendices
Summary of US economic indicators 7 5
Summary of China economic indicators 7 6
Market valuation 7 7
Sector performance 79
Stock performance – China 81
Stock screens – China value stocks 8 2
Stock screen – China growth stocks 8 3
Stock screens – China short stocks 8 4
Stock screens – A, B & H-share price discount 8 5
Changes to earnings estimates 87
Changes to investment ratings 90
KGI universe valuation table (China) 9 1
283321.pdf
(1.55 MB, 需要: 500 个论坛币)
京公网安备 11010802022788号
