摩根大通：新加坡城市交通行业研究报告2009年1月

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Singapore Land Transport
Rush hour
Singapore
Railroads
Ying-Jian ChanAC
(65) 6882-2378
ying.jian.yj.chan@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private
Limited
See page 57 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
Singapore land transport index
0
100
200
300
400
Apr-03
Oct-03
Apr-04
Oct-04
Apr-05
Oct-05
Apr-06
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
SingaporeLandTransport Index STI (rebased)
Source: J.P. Morgan.
What’s inside?
• Sector trading view (pg. 3):
1. Long ComfortDelgro/Short
SMRT pair trade
2. Land transport sector against
the market
• Why public transport ridership
will keep growing? (pg. 12)
• Implications of Land Transport
Masterplan on the operators
(pg. 12)
• Key challenges for the sector
(pg. 22)
• An overview across all land
transport modes (pg. 24)
• We believe the sector offers an attractive risk-adjusted return as we
expect to see earnings recovery on lower oil prices, with fuel cost
ranging between 8%-14% of operators’ operating costs. The sector
should continue to benefit from its strong operating leverage with
revenue supported by an increase in ridership numbers.
• We prefer ComfortDelgro to SMRT: We upgrade ComfortDelgro (CD)
to OW on expectation of earnings recovery, price catalysts from potential
M&As and a possible win of the Downtown Line by 75%-owned SBS
Transit as the government strives to maintain the competitive operating
landscape. We downgrade SMRT to Neutral as we see a lack of near-term
catalysts for the stock. SMRT has outperformed the market by 72% in the
past 12 months and could be most vulnerable to underperformance in a
broad market rally, in our view. While fuel cost has come off, we expect
SMRT to register only 11% earnings growth against 27% for CD for FY09.
• Public transport will likely become the preferred mode with rising
road congestion and the government’s ongoing proactive efforts to keep
land transport affordable. The weaker economic outlook for 2009 should
also raise the migration of commuters from private to public transport.
• MRT in leading role, bus as support: We expect the complete
implementation of the hub-and-spoke model to relegate buses to a
supporting role as more direct bus services get rationalized.
• Taxi ridership should be weak for the near term: We already see the
gradual migration of commuters out of taxis due to both high cost and
weak economic conditions. A major upward adjustment in fares in
Dec-07 resulted in an immediate 3.2% drop in taxi trips followed by
another 7% drop in Jan-08. We expect this to translate to lower hired-out
rates for the taxi business of both CD and SMRT in the near term.
• Key sector risks: We expect new MRT lines to register initial losses as
it takes time to ramp up ridership, especially since the lines are opened in
stages. However, this is similar to SBS Transit’s experience with the
North-East Line in 2003. Potential downside risks would also come from
the operators’ inability to obtain fare hikes from the regulator, although
the fare adjustment formula might suggest otherwise, but we believe this
has been discounted by the market given the low quantum awarded in the
past two years.

Table of Contents
Sector trading view ..................................................................3
Turning positive on ComfortDelgro ............................................................................3
SMRT: Fundamentally sound, technically vulnerable.................................................3
Long ComfortDelgro and short SMRT........................................................................6
Defensive for 2008, still defensive for 2009? ..............................................................8
Investment thesis ...................................................................11
Margins recovery on a lower fuel cost base...............................................................11
Congestion on the road ..............................................................................................12
Public transport the choice mode...............................................................................13
Population growth to drive ridership uptrend ............................................................16
Weaker economy might actually be positive for ridership.........................................16
Affordability will be key............................................................................................17
Take the train, hop off the taxis .................................................................................19
Strong operating leverage ..........................................................................................20
Key challenges for the sector ...............................................22
Slow ramp-up in ridership for new MRT lines ..........................................................22
Inability to obtain fare increase..................................................................................22
Fuel cost: Hedging right.............................................................................................23
Overview across all land transport modes ..........................24
Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) .....................................................24
Backbone of Singapore land transport system...........................................................24
Rail to be the core part of the transport network........................................................24
What’s already in the bag?.........................................................................................25
What’s up for grabs?..................................................................................................25
Unique business model: Low capex requirement ......................................................26
To buy train, or not to buy train, that is the question .................................................28
Light Rapid Transit (LRT) ......................................................28
Walking into extinction?............................................................................................28
Bus...........................................................................................30
From lead to a supporting role? .................................................................................30
Centralized bus network planning could enhance less profitable routes....................30
Erosion of bus riders with rail capacity doubling ......................................................30
Shortfall in rail technologies a saving grace ..............................................................31
New entrants likely, but difficult to achieve economies of scale ...............................31
Taxis ........................................................................................32
A more competitive playing field… ..........................................................................32
…with pricing still synchronized...............................................................................32
Companies
ComfortDelgro...........................................................................................................36
SMRT… ....................................................................................................................47

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