摩根大通：欧洲农药化肥行业研究报告2009年1月

是 否 +2 论坛币

k人 参与回答

经管之家送您一份

应届毕业生专属福利!

求职就业群

赵安豆老师微信：zhaoandou666

经管之家联合CDA

送您一个全额奖学金名额~ !

立即领取

感谢您参与论坛问题回答

经管之家送您两个论坛币！

+2 论坛币

<p>European Agrochemicals /<br/>Fertilisers<br/>Stay nimble and selective as demand trends diverge;<br/>reiterate OW on Yara and Syngenta, lower K+S to N<br/>Agriculture/Fertilizers<br/>Neil C TylerAC<br/>(44-20) 7325-9935<br/><a href="mailto:neil.c.tyler@jpmorgan.com">neil.c.tyler@jpmorgan.com</a><br/>Heidi Vesterinen<br/>(44-20) 7325-4537<br/><a href="mailto:heidi.m.vesterinen@jpmorgan.com">heidi.m.vesterinen@jpmorgan.com</a><br/>Marcus Diebel<br/>(44-20) 7325-9424<br/><a href="mailto:marcus.x.diebel@jpmorgan.com">marcus.x.diebel@jpmorgan.com</a><br/>J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd.<br/>See page 34 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.<br/>J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may<br/>have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their<br/>investment decision. Customers of J.P. Morgan in the United States can receive independent, third-party research on the company or companies<br/>covered in this report, at no cost to them, where such research is available. Customers can access this independent research at<br/><a href="http://www.morganmarkets.com">www.morganmarkets.com</a> or can call 1-800-477-0406 toll free to request a copy of this research.<br/>Figure 1: Two month relative Share<br/>price performance<br/>Indexed to 100, 19/11/2008<br/>80<br/>90<br/>100<br/>110<br/>120<br/>130<br/>140<br/>150<br/>160<br/>170<br/>19/11/2008<br/>26/11/2008<br/>03/12/2008<br/>10/12/2008<br/>17/12/2008<br/>24/12/2008<br/>31/12/2008<br/>07/01/2009<br/>14/01/2009<br/>Syngenta K+S Yara MSCI Euro Chemicals<br/>Source: Datastream<br/>Grain prices appear to have bottomed. The historic low level of current<br/>inventories will likely lead to continued near-term volatility across the grain<br/>complex. However, we believe that reduced nutrient application in ’09, and<br/>ongoing weather uncertainty, present downside risk to yield estimates, and<br/>upside risk to grain prices as the year progresses.<br/>Diverging demand trends for Ag inputs. While 1H 08 witnessed significant<br/>demand acceleration across a wide spectrum of agriculture-related inputs, we<br/>expect ’09 demand to be more selective. We forecast ’09 farm incomes to be<br/>around 50% below ’08, but still well above the five-year average. We expect<br/>growers to prioritise expenditure to focus on immediate yield-enhancement to<br/>maximise cash income. We highlight the following trends:<br/>• The Nitrogen fertiliser market has sprung into life again in ’09. We<br/>continue to view Nitrogen as the most critical of the three main crop<br/>nutrients, and expect demand to continue to increase over the coming<br/>weeks. However, the sustainability of the recent price rebound will depend<br/>on Chinese government policy. We have lowered our ’09 and ’10 EPS<br/>forecasts for Yara by 54% and 56% to reflect an oversupplied market for<br/>most of FY2009. However, a decision by China to raise export taxes from<br/>the current level would present significant upside to these estimates. This<br/>positive risk/reward balance dictates our continued Overweight. Our Dec-<br/>09 DCF-based target price moves to NOK 220 (from NOK 350).<br/>• Demand (and pricing) for seeds and crop protection chemicals has<br/>remained intact, as highlighted by Monsanto’s recent announcement. We<br/>believe this will remain the case and expect Syngenta to be able to benefit<br/>from this resilience and continue to grow earnings by 7.2% in ’09. We<br/>therefore remain Overweight. Our Dec-09 DCF-based target price moves<br/>to SFr260 (from SFr270).<br/>• Lower K+S to Neutral as Potash trade remains largely stalled, and<br/>buyers remain price sensitive. We believe the industry can withstand a<br/>temporary ‘buyers’ strike’, but with operating rates at c.50%, should demand<br/>not recover in H2, we would expect selling prices to fall. We have cut our<br/>’09/10 K+S EPS ests. by 23% and 37% to reflect a likely ‘best-case’ for ’09<br/>(major Potash contract prices flat vs ’08). Despite K+S’s low valuation (5.8x<br/>09E P/E) and 6.2% divi yield, risk to estimates are weighted to the<br/>downside, and we therefore lower our recommendation to Neutral following<br/>a 22% relative outperformance over the past two months. Our Dec-09 DCFbased<br/>target price moves to

扫码加我 拉你入群

请注明：姓名-公司-职位

以便审核进群资格，未注明则拒绝

分享0 收藏1 回帖

关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 摩根大通 行业研究 化肥行业 important including 研究报告 摩根大通 demand

还真是贵！！！

去死。。。。。。。卖这么贵

有参考价值，但是有点贵

500................虽然很想看，但太贵了，买了就破产！既然都发上来了，何必卖那么贵呢