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Reduced visibility: political, financial,
and commodity risk, with the defensives
to continue to out-perform the nonregulated
in the first part of 2009
We are Overweight (V) E.ON (TP EUR33
from EUR36, volatility flag added),
Veolia (TP EUR27), Suez Environnement
(TP EUR17); maintain Overweight and
770p TP on National Grid
EDF (TP EUR44 from EUR62) and GDF
Suez (TP EUR34 from EUR41)
downgraded from Overweight to Neutral
(V) and RWE (TP EUR65 from EUR60)
upgraded from Underweight to Neutral
(V); continue to avoid Enel (TP EUR4.2
from EUR5.5, maintain Underweight,
volatility flag added)
We recommend a cautious stance on the utilities in 2009.
We believe that the risk profile of the sector is as high as it
has ever been with political and financial concerns plus an
uncertain near term outlook for commodities.
We expect contrasting performances from utilities in 2009:
Regulated stocks in monopoly businesses, overseen by
independent regulators, should continue to outperform
the sector, but the extent of such out-performance may
be restricted by debt worries linked to relatively
inflexible expenditure plans
Stocks whose tariffs are regulated by governments (in
France in particular, also central/eastern Europe,
Spanish retail, etc) risk being singled out for measures
designed to ‘protect the consumer’ from tariff rises
which may in fact be justified
Non-regulated stocks will remain exposed to commodity
and funding concerns, as well as to possible measures in
carbon and nuclear generation.
We adjust our forecasts to reflect the new environment. Our
preferred stocks for 2009 are National Grid, E.ON, Veolia,
and Suez Environnement.
目录
In the firing line 3
A difficult 2009 outlook 14
E.ON 30
RWE 36
EDF 42
GDF Suez 51
ENEL 58
National Grid 64
Veolia Environnement 69
Suez Environnement 76
NotesNotesNotesDisclosure
appendix 82
NotesNotesDisclosure
appendix 83
NotesDisclosure appendix 83
Disclosure appendix 84
Disclaimer 87
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