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The dismal performance of the European insurance sector is partly attributable to mounting
capital adequacy and dividend concerns.
While the investment-market gearing of the sector makes it difficult to draw a line in the sand,
our analysis suggests the sector, on the whole, is adequately capitalised and operating cashflow
coverage of increasingly attractive dividend yields is high.
Valuations are also supportive under our most bearish scenario, while rising corporate bond
defaults, D&O claims and DAC unlocking charges could dent rather than wipe out IFRS
earnings in most cases, we believe.
Balance-sheet strength, secure dividends and a strong management team are increasingly
important differentiating factors; we upgrade Aviva (target price 709p), AXA (target EUR24.4)
and ZFS (target CHF331) to Overweight (all from Neutral).
We believe Neutral-rated AEGON, Friends Provident and Standard Life are relatively exposed,
should sector-wide capital and dividend concerns deepen.
We cut our target prices by an average 22% after updating our fundamental valuations for
market movements and company-specific premiums or discounts.
European insurance
目录
Investment summary 1
Capital adequacy 6
Cash-flow generation 15
Bond defaults 19
Credit crisis update 27
Investment sensitivities 36
DAC unlocking 45
Inflation 53
Valuation methodology 59
Company section 61
AEGON 62
Alleanza 68
Allianz 73
Aviva 79
AXA 85
Banca Generali 91
CNP 95
Fondiaria-Sai 101
Friends Provident 106
Generali 110
Legal & General 115
Mediolanum 120
Prudential 126
Standard Life 131
Zurich Financial Services 136
Disclosure appendix 145
Disclaimer 148
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