<p>This will be a particularly complex year for Asian equity markets. The irresistible force –<br/>ultra-low interest rates and huge fiscal packages – is meeting the immovable object –<br/>global deleveraging. Any strategist who tells you he has a clear view of how this will play<br/>out is deluding himself.<br/>In our view, these competing forces will produce sharp swings in stock markets in 2009.<br/>From time to time, macro data will improve sharply (it can hardly get any worse) and<br/>investors will conclude that the recession is ending. But, at other times, shocks such as the<br/>failure of a bank, a country default or the realisation that global imbalances will take<br/>longer to unwind, will deflate the optimism and markets will take a tumble. In this<br/>environment, we expect Asian markets at the end of 2009 to be ±10% of their current<br/>level. This is not an unusual pattern for the first year after a bottom: it is very rare for the<br/>stock market to enter into a new bull market straight away.<br/>In this environment, investors need to think about balancing risk and reward. At the least,<br/>2009 will not be as bad as 2008, when Asian equities fell by 53%: neither will the global<br/>economy be a one-way downward spiral again this year. Our advice is that investors<br/>should take a little cyclical exposure while sticking to quality. That should give decent<br/>upside during the upswings, but avoid excessive downside risk during the corrections.<br/>The best way to do this is through a portfolio of blue-chip household-name stocks – what<br/>we call Asia’s Super Ten. Many of these stocks are somewhat cyclical – we would avoid<br/>too much exposure to pure defensives, which have become expensive. We have in mind a<br/>Nifty-Fifty style approach, as worked in similar periods of uncertainty in Japan in the<br/>1990s and the US in the 1960s. We also recommend some exposure to deeply oversold,<br/>but still decent quality, stocks.<br/>With economic conditions likely to be volatile, sector bets will be less important than<br/>stock choices this year. We reduce our exposure to defensives, lowering telecoms, utilities<br/>and healthcare to neutral. Our overweights are in industrials and energy.<br/>In our market recommendations, we increase a little our cyclical exposure by raising<br/>Taiwan to neutral, and cutting Malaysia to underweight. We see the best balance of<br/>risk/reward in India (which we raise to overweight), China and Singapore.</p><p>目录</p><p>Investment strategy 4<br/>Irresistible force meets immovable object 4<br/>Where do things stand now? 6<br/>What of the long-term picture? 14<br/>Market recommendations 16<br/>Complex factors 16<br/>Sector recommendations/<br/>investment themes 21<br/>Asia’s Super Ten 21<br/>Main markets 25<br/>Japan (neutral) 26<br/>China (overweight) &amp; Hong Kong (neutral) 28<br/>Korea (underweight) 32<br/>Taiwan (neutral) 34<br/>India (overweight) 36<br/>Other markets 39<br/>Australia 40<br/>Singapore 41<br/>Malaysia 42<br/>Indonesia 43<br/>Thailand 44<br/>Philippines 45<br/>Datapack 46<br/>Country/ Sector performance 46<br/>Earnings 48<br/>Valuation 49<br/>Supply &amp; demand 50<br/>Politics and risk 51<br/>Sectors and stocks 52<br/>Economic forecasts 56<br/>Top stock picks 57<br/>Bank of China - 3988, OW(V) 58<br/>Canara Bank - CBK, OW(V) 59<br/>Cathay Pacific - 293, OW 60<br/>CESC - CESC, OW(V) 61<br/>China Agri - 606, OW(V) 62<br/>China Steel - 2002, OW(V) 63<br/>ICBC - 1398, OW(V) 64<br/>Infosys Tech - INFY, OW(V) 65<br/>Kingboard Chemical - 148, OW(V) 66<br/>Li &amp; Fung - 494, OW(V) 67<br/>Maanshan - 0323, OW(V) 68<br/>Pacific Basin - 2343, OW(V) 69<br/>Reliance Industries - RIL, OW(V) 70<br/>Shanghai Electric - 2727, OW(V) 71<br/>Sinopec - 0386, OW(V) 72<br/>Sinotrans - 598, OW(V) 73<br/>TSMC - 2330, OW 74<br/>ZTE - 763, OW(V) 75<br/>Disclosure appendix 76<br/>Disclaimer 79</p><p></p><p>
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