麦格理：亚洲证券市场投资策略报告2009年5月

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Cashburn in 2009
Asia’s deteriorating financial position
Margins across Asia remain will remain low for several years as Asia digests a
decade of over-investment. Asia’s financial position deteriorated during 2008, as
leverage ratios rose for the first time in a decade. This represents a major
inflection point. An even greater increase will occur in 2009; even if restocking
leads to a production rise in Asia over the rest of the year, many Asian
companies will continue to burn significant amounts of cash.
How much worse will 2009 be?
Analysts are assuming only a mild fall in cash generation this year by being
overly aggressive on the potential for cost cuts and working capital
improvements. We can identify US$125bn in questionable additions to cashflow
from such assumptions. The risks are greatest in cement, steel and construction.
Implications of a cash shortfall
Cashflows across Asia will not be enough to meet current dividend and capex
plans. The shortfall will be at least US$50bn, but could approach US$200bn.
Either significant new financing will be required, which will be a real challenge in
Korea in particular, or dividends and capex will be cut. The sectors most at risk
are materials and construction (again), along with energy, transport and telcos.
Stock picking in a challenging environment
While the near-term focus will be on a pick-up in production linked to a
restocking cycle, it is also important not to extrapolate this better news. The
production rise may not lead to higher earnings and, if end-demand recedes
again, there will be renewed pressure on the financial positions of Asian
companies.
The risks are greatest in the materials and construction sectors primarily,
followed by energy and capital goods (such as shipbuilding). Absent from this list
are tech companies, where analysts have been much more conservative in their
forecasts, and where cash positions and cash generation is much better.
Valuations also support a preference for tech over the materials and construction
sectors, where optimism on fiscal policy has seen valuations rise already.

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