汇丰银行：欧洲石油开采设备行业研究报告2008年6月

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Offshore Brazil has made many recent
headlines and fuelled much speculation,
but we see this lengthening – not
accelerating – an already tight cycle.
Further upside is likely, but post 2012.
􀀗 Winners are likely to be the equipment
suppliers for rigs & supply vessels, and
the areas least likely to ‘go local’ – high
end seismic and deepwater installation.
Longer term growth also looks assured
for FPSO & subsea equipment players.
􀀗 Our top plays on offshore growth – Aker
Solutions, OW (V), target price NOK190;
BW Offshore, OW (V), NOK25; Technip,
OW, EUR75; CGGVeritas, OW, EUR40.
We downgrade Saipem to UW (target
EUR29 from EUR 26); Fugro remains
Neutral (EUR59 from EUR51)
Subsalt & Sugarloaf – investing in a new era
Brazil offers the largest single opportunity for offshore
contractors, but we think this lengthens rather than
accelerates an already tight cycle through the next decade.
We do see potential for accelerating demand, but this is
likely post 2012 as development activity gains momentum.
A preference for ‘Made in Brazil’
Local content issues could limit the opportunities for
international drilling contractors and supply vessel operators.
We think the likely winners are drilling equipment suppliers
(eg AKSO) and construction yards, high end seismic (eg
GEPH, PGS), high end subsea installation (eg TEC), floating
production (eg BWO, SBMO), subsea equipment (WSML,
TEC) and well intervention (AKSO).
Ways to play offshore growth
Our preferred stocks are Aker Solutions, BW Offshore,
Technip and CGGVeritas, and we also see attractive
potential in Seadrill and SBM Offshore. We downgrade
Saipem to Underweight from Neutral (target price EUR29
from EUR26) on valuation grounds, and raise our target on
Fugro to EUR59 (from EUR51), but remain Neutral.

目录

Investment summary 3
Oil services in Brazil 6
Investment summary 6
Key technological challenges 8
Offshore seismic 9
Offshore drilling 11
Subsea equipment 14
Subsea / offshore installation 19
Floating production / FPSO 22
Supply & other offshore vessels 25
Construction capacity 26
Oil services – sector view 28
A robust macro outlook 28
European Oil services – key investment views 30
Changes in ratings & forecasts 30
Saipem – Underweight (from Neutral) Target price
EUR29 (from EUR26) 30
Fugro – Neutral (maintained) Target price EUR59
(from EUR51) 31
Aker Solutions – Overweight (V), TP NOK190) 33
BW Offshore Overweight (V), target price NOK25 34
Technip – Overweight, target EUR75 35
CGGVeritas – Overweight, target EUR40 36
Brazil – an E&P snapshot 50
From onshore to ultra-deepwater 50
Tupi – some key facts 51
Implications from Tupi 53
Valuations & risks 55
Offshore engineers 55
Aker Solutions – reiterate Overweight (V) rating, target
price NOK190 55
Technip – reiterate Overweight rating, target price
EUR75 56
Saipem – rated Underweight (downgraded from
Neutral), target price EUR29 (from EUR26) 57
Wellstream – reiterate Neutral (V) rating, target price
1525p 58
Offshore operators 59
BW Offshore – reiterate Overweight (V), target price
NOK25 59
SBM Offshore – reiterate Overweight rating, target
price EUR30 61
Seadrill – reiterate Overweight (V) rating, target price
NOK210 62
Seismic operators 63
CGGVeritas – reiterate Overweight rating, target price
EUR40 63
Fugro – reiterate Neutral rating, target price EUR59
(from EUR51) 64
PGS - reiterate Neutral (V), target price NOK155 65
TGS Nopec – reiterate Overweight (V) rating, target
price NOK115 66
Disclosure appendix 68
Disclaimer 71
Contents
3

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 石油开采 行业研究 汇丰银行 研究报告 汇丰银行 欧洲 设备 石油开采