汇丰银行：日本高尔夫球行业研究报告2008年3月

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Initiating coverage at Overweight on
Accordia Golf and Overweight (V) on
our top pick Pacific Golf
􀀗 Opportunities for acquisition-led growth
should resurge, with more golf courses
coming to market at lower prices
􀀗 A change in top management is likely to
be very good news for long-suffering
Pacific shareholders
We believe Accordia and Pacific Golf are good
stockholdings in the current market environment. Neither
company is exposed to the strong yen or a decelerating US
economy, both are rarities in that they are domestic
businesses with strong growth prospects, and although it
may seem counterintuitive, both companies should benefit
from a slowing economy and tighter credit markets.
We look for the following catalysts to drive sector share
prices going forward: 1) a greater-than-expected number of
course acquisitions resulting from a slowing economy and
tighter credit markets, 2) a broadening of the shareholder
base to include more domestic institutions following the
likely start of dividend payments in 2008, 3) a much
improved investor relations effort at Pacific, which is likely
to attract more foreign investors, 4) the greater financial
discipline of the new management team at Pacific, which
should drive higher returns, 5) above-consensus double-digit
EBITDA growth in a weakening economy, 6) prospects for a
further improvement in margins over the mid-term following
the introduction of advanced yield management techniques,
and 7) more sell-side coverage.
Now trading 51%-68% below their highs, both Accordia and
Pacific appear attractively valued relative to historical
ranges, the broader market, and on an absolute basis.
We initiate coverage of Accordia (OW) and Pacific (OW V)
with target prices of JPY143,000 and JPY172,000, implying
potential return of 48% and 81% respectively. Although we like
both stocks, we think faster cash flow and earnings growth and
investor perceptions of management changes for the better
should drive superior share price performance at Pacific.

目录

Investment summary 3
Business model – what do they do? 4
More acquisition opportunities 4
Profit growth at existing courses 5
Yield management 5
Impact of a slowing economy on operations 5
Reaching out to shareholders 5
Share prices and valuations 6
Catalysts 7
Pacific vs. Accordia 7
Risks 8
More acquisition opportunities 9
Mini bubble temporarily limited growth opportunities 9
Another bite at the cherry 10
The golf course market – a bit of history 10
Room to grow 12
What’s likely to change? 13
Limitations to growth 15
Course prices 15
Advantages enjoyed by Accordia and Pacific 16
Existing operations – growing
more profitable 17
The game evolves 17
Initiatives to improve profitability 19
How will a slowing economy impact profitability? 25
Pacific – more scope for improving profitability than
Accordia 26
The future yield management
opportunity 27
What is yield management? 27
Prerequisites for effective yield management 28
Will yield management work in Japan/in the golf business?28
The future opportunity 29
More shareholder friendly 31
Improved IR 31
Dividend payments to broaden shareholder base 32
Greater financial discipline 33
We like both, but favour
Pacific over Accordia 34
At first glance very similar 34
Qualitative differences not of much consequence 34
Quantitative analysis reveals significant differences 35
Valuation 36
Setting our target price using DCF/DEP analysis 36
Single period multiples – a reality check 37
Adjustments 38
Contents

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